Some companies have reached a market cap that can't be supported by near-term revenues or expected news. They trade at a premium based on pipelines that will take years to unfold, or on the assumption that a Glaxo/Roche/etc. might make an offer for 49% at a given megabuck level. I have little doubt that my investment in GILD will pay off big-time in ten years (well, it already has, but that's because I bought in 12/94). However, if I weren't aware that a Glaxo or a Roche was willing to buy a big chunk, I'd bail and wait a couple of years before investing again. I am aware of such, so I sit holding shares in a good company, afraid that I'll miss a nice 50% near-term kiss if and when somebody does make a serious move on them.
In the mean time, what's to discuss? OK, if Forvade is approved, it will be for treatment of acyclovir-resistant HSV in patients with AIDS. Would you use it off-label, if you could, to treat a cold sore?
Hint........ if the FDA is reading this, the correct answer is "no, never!".
Second question.......... if PMPA or its oral prodrug derivative is hot, will it canibalize GS 840? Will GS 930 or GS 3857 canibalize Vistide?
If momentum investors are reading this and you want them to hang with the stock, the correct answer is "no, never!".
Are there any indications that PMPA is as effective against HIV as against SIV? (the correct answer is NOT the same as the above correct answers, gods willing)
How are the Canadian studies progressing with "Forvade" (I really like their selection of trade names) in non-immunosuppressed patients? What ever happened to the intravitreous formulation of Vistide? Has anyone shown any interest in licensing the Protein C Activator? Does GS 840 stand a chance for chronic HBV when measured against Glaxo and 3TC? Why do we hear so little about real-world applications of GS 2888 and antisense? Is GS 522 (the thrombin inhibitor) dead? How are the Storz studies going?
So, stir up a thread, and you get worry. :-)
Actually, it should be apparent that GILD has wonderful problems. All biotechs should have the problem that they've discovered such wonderful drug candidates that they're in danger of canibalizing approved products or late-stage projects. The questions above just indicate the depth of the company's pipe and the foresight of management. The bottom line is...... if GS 4104 and/or the oral prodrugs of PMPA and cyclic cidofovir are successful, a small stake now may just make you rich.
Cheers! Rick |
