Reseller,
The total income between Michael's, Dave's and Ken's estimates are between 1.699 to 2.019 billion in sales, I doubt that any had factored in 170 to 200 million in sales for Clik!.
Ken's original prediction called for Clik! revenues of $130 million in 1999 and $600 million in 2000. In all fairness, this estimate was probably a close to "best case" scenario and wasn't what he really thought was going to happen.
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After rethinking his numbers, his revised predictions called for Clik! revenues of $71 million in 1999 and $222 million in 2000. This time he said he was "calling it like he saw it", and was the bar by which he was willing to be measured.
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Neither Michael or I specifically addressed Clik! yearly revenues for either 1999 or 2000.
Some random thoughts on the Clik! drive issue:
Just a wild guess on my part because I have no idea how much Iomega will get for an average Clik! drive, but if Iomega were to sell an average drive for, say, $125, they would have to sell over 1.36 million drives during 1999 to generate $170 million in revenue for just the Clik! drive. Any less than $125 revenue per drive, of course, would simply require the sale of an even greater number of drives.
Let's see....they already sold 24,000 drives in Q1 1999, so if my "wild guess" is right ($125 per drive) that would require the sale of another 1.34 million drives during the remainder of 1999. Looking at it this way it sure seems doable to me if they can create the demand.
But wait! Another thing to consider is their are no Clik! disk sales included in my "imaginary" straw man numbers above. I suppose Jodie's assertion that 10% of all 1999 revenues would come from Clik! sales meant sales related to the entire Clik! line (drives and disks). When viewed this way it seems even more doable to me.
Dave |
