George, it was less than ten days ago when I pointed out the devastating effects of allowing the Serb sponsored war(s) in Yugoslavia to inflame the situation between Greece and Turkey. You seemed to imply that I was incorrect in positing that the end result of Serbia's continued aggression could be the spread of the hostilities from the north Adriatic to the eastern Mediterranean.
While your fears about Turkey's involvement are valid, you are wrong in assuming that NATO's actions in any way changed the results of Turkey's national elections. The true power in Turkey is, and has been since the overthrow of the Ottoman Empire by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the staunchly secular military power structure. This is evidenced by the fall of Turkey's Islamic Virtue Party which came under the disfavor of the military for it's continued efforts to make the military an instrument of Islamic reform. The Turkish military and much of it's intelligentsia have been unwavering in their dedication to the vision of Ataturk of Turkey as first and foremost a secular state and a country composed of Muslims second. This 80 year tradition could be threatened if it is perceived in Turkey that their historic enemies, the Serbs and the Greeks are waging an unjust war against it's Muslim brethren. Turkey's foremost goal right now is to realize Ataturk's vision of a secular Turkey becoming a full partner with what is now called the EEC. Turkey will not risk losing it's chance to join a modern Europe as a equal without overwhelming provocation. While the rhetoric in the streets may sound reactionary and threatening, Turkey will take no actions against Greece or Yugoslavia unless they feel that they have good reason. Good reason as they see it could be the widening of the conflict to include Greece acting on the side of the Serbs and against Muslims in Macedonia, Albania, or Kosovo.
As a side point; While Greece does possess a substantial, and increasingly modern navy, there is no force in the Balkans that could match the military might of Turkey.
All the more reason to stop the nine year old war in the Balkans now, before Milosevic's vision of a Serbian holyland, anointed in the blood of their foes, becomes a Hieronymus Bosch vision of the apocalyse, involving not only the Balkans, but the rest of Europe and the Middle East as well. |
