A little late perhaps, but I am taking a position today on HLR.
Hollinger is about 16, up from its lows of 11 and close to its 12 mo. high of 18. Yahoo shows a pe of 9 and a div. yield of 3.5%
My history of it, shows a co. with rapidly rising sales, but stalled out in '98. ROE in mid 20's up from about 6. At the cost maybe of taking on a bunch more debt,1.4B. Div. is increasing, as is apparently earnings. Price to sales near its high.
Twister, I believe, has posted that these newspaper companies trade on cash flow or EBITDA or some other measure (I don't recall)- and that that, (again if I recall correctly)is the standard way for a business person to evaluate these newspaper businesses.
So the numbers and ratios I am posting may not be meaningful.
What seems important to me is the margin of safety (div and pe) as this company goes about doing some odd (IMO) things. They sold off a bunch of community newspapers (I thought that was supposed to be like a Buffett moat), and they SEEM to be directing their efforts to the internet. The kicker to enhance value might be the interent companies in which they may have stakes (refer to the HLR SI thread, quotes from Merrill Lynch analyst). If the internet interest/mania continues (and in the last couple of days it looks stopped-dead-in-its tracks), the stock offers some opportunity to reward investors.
I say there's a margin of safety with HLR and while waiting, you get a management team that is trying to bring out the value they have in their business(es). Reluctantly but expectantly, I'm stepping up and buying.
JMO, Paul Senior |
