Fred,
We all know the emotions are running wide open. Nobody (well, almost nobody<gg>) expected this turn events. A lot of the quote analysts unquote are pissed off because USRX/COMS pulled this off without the slightest inkling, and they're embarrassed for not knowing or speculating about it.
The USRX longs will be rewarded if they simply wait for things to unfold. The merger is timely from a competitive standpoint, both now and in the future. These two companies are powerhouses in their respective markets, with very complimentary and non-overlapping product lines. I guess an analogy would be the joining of a meat processor and a poultry processor. Complimentary products, no overlap, ability to share overhead and customers, and to leverage market penetration off of each other.
Casey's focus is on the long term investor, not the momentum or day traders. That must be his first concern, not the current fad or short term sentiment in the market. I pay him to run the company, to be a visionary, and to know his competition. I don't pay him to manage the company based on current whims of the equity markets. I'll make the decisions about when it's time to buy, and when it's time to sell. If he thinks it's the right time for this marraige, who am I to argue. I'll defer to his superb results and industry experience without hesitation.
You know I've held my core position for going on three years now. I've sat through many, many ups and downs. I've been here since $6.50 (less than three years ago!), and seen swings of 10/20/30/40 percent more times than I can count. I've traded some of the volatility in both directions, and have fortunately made out okay on the short term trading. But, my big money has been made on the core position, and I have every expectation that it will continue to pay off handsomely in the future, with or without 3Com.
I'll tell you who should be sweating bullets - Ascend. RoboCom will put the hurt on them when they start to market turn-key LAN-to-WAN solutions, which Ascend will not be able to compete with. Their market value will suffer, because nobody is going to acquire them at their lofty P/E, especially in light of this merger. |
