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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.03

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote (11471)	4/19/1999 5:47:00 PM
From: j.o.	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Very well done indeed, LG! I did not mean to imply that you had done little trading since 9800 - I have been out of long-term positions for some time as well. I just wanted to emphasize that it's OK for anyone to not catch a move with all guns blazing - sometimes one should just wait for the market to behave in a manner that one can understand before jumping in with both feet. I do indeed think it's funny that some criticism was voiced on this thread last week for those who are not content to always count themselves member of the bull's camp. If one has incomplete understanding of what is happening, then caution seems appropriate, no? Allow me to again voice my thanks for your well articulated posts. I find them useful for examining my own reasoning. I must admit that I don't think that the TYX move will be sustainable. Rates may move slightly lower than just last time, but I tend to think that continued US market weakness will lead to dollar selling and falling treasuries. Cheap money across the board (US, Euro, Yen) might just lead to a negative environment for the bonds, even if they do see a rally over the next week or so. It looks to me like the long-term yield downtrend in the TYX has been broken pretty convincingly - I would be curious to know why you feel the TYX is headed lower. Regards, j.o.

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