chat-Will, FUD- I think it's "fear, uncertainty, and doubt".
I have learned a lot about frame relay and ATM from these sites:
frame-relay.indiana.edu
nap.edu
cir-inc.com
techweb.cmp.com
verticalsystems.com
casc.com
My understanding, local ISP's dont use OC-3 and OC-12 equipment. FORE brings ATM to the desktop. Cascade builds backbone equipment for the 'big boys'. FORE also builds high capacity backbone equipment. Cascade has furnished equipment for 4 of 6 RBOCS. I wish we had participation
from some 'gurus' who work in FORE and Cascade's fields. Reading the
information supplied at FORE and Cascade's internet sites, I conclude
that Cascade and FORE aren't really butting heads yet. Previous posts
explained that UUNET and Wcom use a combination of everyone's
equipment. Cascade is heavy into frame relay. I cannot put into my
own words why anyone would choose ATM over frame relay or choose
Cascade over FORE. It would only be an opinion Will. I think I read
that people were going to ATM because of QoS. Well Cascade now has
QoS on their frame relay products. Frame relay is? cheaper than ATM.
ATM does have greater bandwidth as frame relay is limited.
It seems an equipment discussion between companies comes down to a p---ing contest. Just like ford, chevy and chrysler discussions. They all build fine equipment or nobody would buy it. yes?
That's the best I can express my understanding.
Of course the press release concerning the survey of Cascade being #1 in frame relay and #1 in ATM mentions ATM to ISP. But I believe this
is talking about the WAN-nationwide ISP backbone networks and not
local ISPs. It is a press release from Vertical Systems group and
from august 96. After visiting FORE homepage I cant find FORE
bragging as Cascade that were #1 in ATM. Surely FORE would've
responded to Cascade's brag release.
Concerning ROE, a fundamental analysis book I have, maintains
that for new companies to grow, their ROE must be 15% or more. If you
could find 20%-that is rare, and concerning Cisco and Cascade being
greater than 50% ROE (the last time I looked) it has been mentioned
that ROE that high >50% are only produced in 1 of 1000 companies.
Again, FORE low ROE may be related to its bookkeeping since its P/E
is also very high. Merger costs may not have been taken into account.
Me saying FORE 'going out of business' was a stretch as was my comment
in an earlier posts concening takeovers, that Cascade was looking to
buy Cisco......
I have experienced during these times that all of the above
research and views dont mean crap to these analysts and trading tactics. The stock tanked due to reaction to Cascade saying they
believe the frame relay market was 'maturing' and would only grow 30%
a year in the future. So everyone says "ok - reprice CSCC to a p/e of
30" And they did. (or we did)
As I said last night, a sector mutual fund may be a good idea
since I think you need to diversify and it is not possible for me to
own stock in all of these fine companies.
I have been 'wordy' and shown that I dont know what Im talking about, so I'm off to see what it would take for Cascade to buy FORE.
I hope I have helped you Will, to see where Im coming from.
steve
:o) |
