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JLA--I slept in, missed talking heads. John Kerry is a goof, and I am glad that Gregg had him for lunch. Unless the whole operation collapses, I think ground troops are inevitable. What may not be inevitable are the circumstances of their insertion. With the credible threat of a full- scale invasion, Milosevic may turn to the Russians to midwife a new deal that splits the difference between NATO and Serbia. In that case, we may indeed have a "permissive environment" for the occupation of Kosovo, in conjunction with the Russians and perhaps Ukrainians...We must insist on repatriation, the Serbs will insist on effective civil control. To get a deal, we may have to stop threatening an international war- crimes tribunal, and we will certainly have to take responsibility for icing down the KLA...It may take an actual invasion, though, and I fear the consequences...If the Serbs do not sue for peace quickly, it will be a BIG MESS...Milosevic may count on that, or he may be alarmed at the prospect of losing Kosovo all together...We'll see... |
