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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.08

-0.8%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: Les H who wrote (11516)	4/20/1999 1:26:00 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Les, you raise many excellent points! As I noted to Vitas in the last few days, the market was "toast". As I noted to I2, Jim Hopkins had this issue pegged a long time ago with his head and tail concept and it's available for all to read on the MDA thread. A full 20% of the DJIA are industrial cyclicals, representing a time in our society long ago gone. Another 7% are oils. When the DJIA is going up led by these two groups, it is not a time to rejoice (unless you are short). IMHO the battleground today was at OEX 660, and the field of battle is strewn with casualties. It really is very simple: bull runs do not start when the weekly OEX is 100 points away from its weekly (50) moving average. Just an observation that is not back-tested with any historical numbers. We are in the age of Indexing and he/she who fails to understand this concept is going to roadkill on I-whatever. BWDIK TB

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