Cannot imagine LU taking on COMS under any circumstances. Reasoning:
1. Resulting combination would have 70%+ of the remote access market. This would never pass doj scrutiny.
2. Resulting combination would have 75%+ of client modems and chipsets sold into PC OEMs. I think LU is happy to take this market share on their own, thank you very much.
3. LU has had bad experiences in consumer products, and is still trying to get rid of its cellular handset business. Valuable as it is, Palm does not fit into LU's strategy and would be a distraction.
4. LAN PBX partnership with Siemens would have to be dissolved. LU already has significant resources devoted to LAN PBX and will get there just fine w/o 3Com
5. NIC market is very slow growth, not in keeping with LU objective of divesting businesses not capable of delivering better than 10% annual growth. It might have an interest in DynamicAccess, but I'm not sure.
6. The pieces it might want- LAN systems distribution channel, xDSL/cable modem client technology, DynamicAccess technology, transcend ware - are probably worth more to someone else.
7. The pieces it wouldn't want - Palm, NICs, modems, total control,LAN PBX, home networking, etc. - would be a pain to sell off.
I think Ericsson or Siemens are more likely buyers of COMS. In any case, it would well better if they broke themselves up into 4 pieces. |
