Sometimes the simple fact is the biggest truth. For whatever reasons, since they have not identified themselves, the short sellers have chosen to engage in a battle of strength with those bullish investors who are long the stock. If it were a struggle between those who were considering buying the stock if the fundementals played out as advertised and the short sellers, it stands to reason that the stock would have shown far better gains today than it has since theoretically the number of shares available to supply any concentrated demand is limited.
According to Company sources and published data, institutions hold almost 2 million of the 6.7 million shares issued. According to the Proxy statement all officers and directors own 1.9 million shares less any that were sold since January 1999. The "Insider Trader" site on the web indicates that Insiders own 26.9%. Unless the funds that own this stock are an anomaly and they actively trade the stock, the volume you see trading each day and successively each week and month has to be coming from momentum players, day traders and short sellers. The latter may also fall into the first two categories. As the King of Siam was want to say, "It is a puzzlement." Without insight into those free trader's mind none of us, especially me, are really in any position to do more that flap our gums or in the case of the net punch our keys and spew out little more than wild guesses as to why the stock behaves the way it does.
It is apparent to those of us who have been around the block in this game more than once that this stock is a buy and hold only for those who have the patience of a Saint or a trading vehicle for the brave and foolish. For the "investor", that doesn't mean someone who is looking to make some bucks in the next week, month or quarter after they buy the stock or after the stock shakes their confidence by dropping seemingly without reason. The statements accompanying the Q2 release have to offer consolation to those longs, as I always caution, providing the source of the information is truthful and reliable.
Since so much stock seems to locked up either in insider's hands or institutional portfolios and longer term investors, the prospect of seeing new institutional activity and aggressive buying IMO is not that strong. The dilema for ANLT's management is how to get the stock price up to a level where a split or secondary would make sense and increase the outstanding shares to a point where new institutional interest can be generated and then create a formidable reason for the shorts to cover. |
