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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: FMK who wrote (10547)4/20/1999 2:54:00 PM
From: P. Ramamoorthy  Read Replies (1) of 27311
 
Fred - Thanks for clarification in reference to my opinions.

We commit capital for production after a thorough market search. That is the risk we take. VLNC has committed to those manufacturing capacities, production improvements, etc. with plans to fully utilize them. No question about it.

My question addressed the time table for the 100% utilization of VLNC capacity. My opinion is that the time frame may be longer (at least 2 years) than expected. This assumption may be wrong too.

One form of PO news has to include the total size of order (in $ or units) with customer name and a delivery schedule, so we can estimate how much revenue will be generated in a qtr or year.

Nothing wrong with using 30% or 50% margin for estimate purposes. But the actual margin in the 10Q will be more meaningful (to me) in evaluating the stock's growth potential, re.: financial performance.

I also assume that the licensing revenues may take longer time frame to add to the bottom line. Using these assumptions I try to develop a low stock price scenario with future growth based on the financial performance.

After watching the stock and reading all the SM comments, the $60-100 price appreciation will take longer than expected. The step on Lev's time table is to get the market price up into teens, so VLNC can get some equity financing. Waiting for that to happen. Ram
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