I wish I could be optimistic about MSFT share price over the short term. Unfortunately, the prospects over the next few months do not look good.
What matters is not the reality, but perception. I don't think this report will be seen as bullish. Income derived from investments, slow rev growth - this is not good for "perceptions".
Just as with INTC, MSFT will get punished. Maybe we can get some upgrades or whatever, but other than that, what do you imagine we have to look forward to? The trial?
The problem is - there is no "story". Nothing for the market to grab onto and run with. And there won't be for some time.
I'm afraid it will be a long time before we break the 95 level. And dead money is money the momentum chasers abandon. Short term, I'm not optimistic.
OTOH, there is support at 74, and again, very solid support at 67 1/2. I don't know how far down it'll drift, but for the time being, it'll be range-bound. Of course, I wouldn't dream of selling MSFT, especially if you've got big gains in it - long term the prospects are good, and this is a core holding, but if you want to chase hot money - turn to the nets.
It'll be interesting to see tomorrow's action. It's undeniable that there's been a terrific amount of institutional selling of MSFT going on the last couple of weeks - accross the board. Short term, this is bound to hurt the stock technically. Longer term, next 2-3 years, I'm a bull, but short term, I'm not going to look at my MSFT holdings for awhile (I am counting on a good buying opportunity in the coming months, at which point I'll add to my core MSFT holdings).
Good luck to all MSFT holders - present and future! |
