Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 160.46

-0.6%

12:42 PM EST

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To: Gregg Powers who wrote (27704)	4/20/1999 9:08:00 PM
From: DanD	Read Replies (1) of 152472

Gregg, I did a little math on the ASIC book to bill. The report said that they sold about 9 million ASICS this quarter. That means if the price stays constant over the next quarter the number of ASICS for this upcomming quarter will be 15.3 million. I then for giggles kept going to see what it would be if the 1.7 ratio stayed constant. If it does then the total asics after 4 more quarters would be 75.17 million. ] 9 1.7 = 15.3 1.7 = 26.01 1.7 = 44.217 1.7 = 75.17 I doubt very seriously if the demand for ASICs will be that much in the next year, but how about if we change the book to bill to degrade to a healthy 1.1 over time. 9 1.7 = 15.3 1.5 = 22.95 1.3 = 29.84 1.7 = 32.81 Do you think these numbers are reasonable? will there be that much demand for chipsets in the next year? If so what does this mean to royalty growth? If the final number is 32.81 * 150 * .04 = 262.55 mil in royalties with a 4 percent royalty and 150 dollar average price for phones I am guessing the price of phones will come down. This of course does not include other ASIC vendor paying royalties and also does not include straight phone sales Are these numbers at all close? Dan D

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