Now is as good a time as any to post an updated earnings model. See the end of the next post for a summary of the latest revisions.
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** Updated Earnings Model **
The following Earnings Model is based on Sepracor's ICE Pharmaceutical Rollout information provided in their “Fact Sheet”. I've added the annual sales of the Parent Drug for 1998 (several are estimated and are marked with a ?). A safety factor (ie. 50%) is included to account for the fact that the drug may not reach the market and may not take the entire market share of the Parent Drug. If applicable, an estimated royalty % is indicated and if Sepracor will market the product on their own, the Royalty is indicated as NA. Using these factors the Estimated Annual Sales for each drug candidate is calculated.
Because the pharmaceutical market is continually growing, the model applies an 8% annual growth rate to the sales of each product. Products that Sepracor is bringing to the market in stages (ie. Xopenex) are adjusted upwards in the years following their initial launch. The estimated sales for Fiscal Years 2003, 2006 and 2009 are indicated on the lower line of each product analysis and are in [$ million]. These numbers are intended to account for market growth and the staged launch of certain products.
Following the individual product Annual Sales projections I've summarized Sepracor's Estimated Total Revenue Per Year and subtracted estimated costs for SG&A, R&D, Miscellaneous (ie. product costs, license fees, patent fees, interest) and Tax @ 32%. The Net Earnings Per Share are the end result, and are indicated for Fiscal Years 2003, 2006 and 2009. If you are interested and have time, please review this information and comment on any part of the model that you feel needs alteration.
Sepracor Product... Parent Drug... Rollout Date…..
1998 Sales of Parent… Safety Factor… Estimated Royalty… Revenue $
Xopenex (Levalbuterol).. Ventolin/Proventil.. 1999
$1.4 billion.. 15%.. NA.. $210 million
[2003 $309 million] [2006 $689 million] [2009 $868 million]
Desloratadine (DCL).. Claritin.. 2000
$2.3 billion.. 70%.. 5.5%.. $89 million
[2003 $131 million] [2006 $165 million] [2009 $208 million]
Noricisapride.. Propulsid.. 2001
$1 billion.. 90%.. 14%.. $126 million
[2003 $185 million] [2006 $233 million] [2009 $294 million]
Norastemizol.. Hismanal.. 2001
$600 million.. 50%.. 50%.. $150 million
[2003 $220 million] [2006 $277 million] [2009 $350 million]
(S)-oxybutynin.. Ditropan.. 2002
$130 million.. 40%.. NA.. $52 million
[2003 $76 million] [2006 $96 million] [2009 $121 million]
(R)-fluoxetine.. Prozac.. 2002
$2.8 billion.. 70%.. 14%.. $274 million
[2003 $402 million] [2006 $507 million] [2009 $639 million]
(R,R)-formoterol.. Foradil/Atock.. 2002
$140 million.. 30%.. NA.. $42 million
[2003 $62 million] [2006 $78 million] [2009 $98 million]
(S)-doxazosin.. Cardura.. 2002
$600 million.. 40%.. 14%.. $34 million
[2003 $49 million] [2006 $63 million] [2009 $79 million]
(-)-cetirizine.. Zyrtec.. 2002
$550 million.. 50%.. 14%.. $38 million
[2003 $56 million] [2006 $70 million] [2009 $89 million]
Desmethylsibutramine.. Meridia.. 2002
$1 billion (?).. 30%.. 14%.. $42 million
[2003 $62 million] [2006 $78 million] [2009 $98 million]
(R)-ketoprofen.. Orudis/Actron.. 2002
$200 million (?).. 30%.. 15%.. $9 million
[2003 $13 million] [2006 $17 million] [2009 $21 million]
Desmethylvenlafaxine.. Effexor.. 2002
$200 million (?).. 30%.. 15%.. $9 million
[2003 $13 million] [2006 $17 million] [2009 $21 million]
(R)-bupropion.. Zyban.. 2003
$500 million (?).. 50%.. 15%.. $38 million
[2003 $0 million] [2006 $69 million] [2009 $87 million]
(+)-zopiclone.. Imovane.. 2003
$144 million.. 50%.. 15%.. $11 million
[2003 $0 million] [2006 $20 million] [2009 $25 million]
(-)-pantoprazole.. Pantozol.. 2005
$500 billion.. 50%.. NA .. $250 million
[2003 $0 million] [2006 $463 million] [2009 $583 million]
(R)-ondansetron.. Zofran.. 2006
$600 million.. 70%.. 15%.. $63 million
[2003 $0 million] [2006 $117 million] [2009 $147 million]
Hydroxyitraconazole.. Sporanox.. 2007
$550 million.. 70%.. 15%.. $58 million
[2003 $0 million] [2006 $0 million] [2009 $135 million]
(-)-amlodipine.. Norvasc.. 2007
$300 million (?).. 50%.. 15%.. $23 million
[2003 $0 million] [2006 $0 million] [2009 $54 million]
(S)-salmeterol.. Serevent.. 2008
$300 million (?).. 50%.. 15%.. $23 million
[2003 $0 million] [2006 $0 million] [2009 $54 million]
(S)-Iansoprazole.. Prevacid.. 2009
$1.8 billion.. 50%.. 15%.. $75 million
[2003 $0 million] [2006 $0 million] [2009 $315 million]
"Partial list"
Continued on next post |
