Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 318.78

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (29646)	4/21/1999 1:01:00 AM
From: Ross	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Thank you for posting the charts. I don't think I need to point out to the readers of this thread the similarity of the pattern of orders and shipments to the pattern two years ago. Then and now, shipments took a tentative upturn six months after the orders began to rise. If (big if) the pattern continues, shipments would be up a lot in the next report. If the pattern continued for book-to-bill as well, that would be down, while orders and shipments both rose. Some of the similarity must be based on real factors, such as a lag between orders and shipments of complicated, expensive equipment. The depth and length of the current downturn, on the one hand, and the changes in the PC industry, on the other hand (and probably lots of other things) suggest that there is no need for the patterns to repeat exactly, however. Ross

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