This thread is to Asian recovery what the Michael Burke thread is to Internet valuations: most of us think that it has a long, hard, way to go (especially in Japan, on which much depends), and that fundamental issues remain to be addressed.
There has been a recent perception of recovery, driven in my mind more by wishful thinking than by any hard evidence, and this has (IMO, obviously) caused the responses you have noticed. The responses show mainly in the funds because few US investors invest directly in the markets in question.
If you want to gamble on the continuation and acceleration of that perception, the funds are there and willing to take the money. It's not a move I'd advocate, not that I'm any great expert.
This is not to say that there are not specific windows of opportunity. I think Korea and Singapore are probably somewhat ahead on the recovery curve, and HK, which has always had better bank regulations than its neighbors, probably has less damage to conceal on the bad loan front. Still, the region as a whole is, I believe, a lot farther from real recovery than a lot of people would like to believe. Asia is nowhere nearly as bad off as Russia, though, if that means anything.
That should get a more detailed response out of those who know more... |
