Re: my Gorilla discussions this weekend on how current gorilla can stumble and new ones form. This about MSFT (not copyrighted):
zdnet.com
Berst Alert
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 21, 1999
Why Consumer
Appliances Should Scare
Bill Gates Silly
Jesse Berst, Editorial Director
ZDNet AnchorDesk
Jesse's list of Most Frightening Things:
Annette before her morning coffee
Nicci's desk (think Hurricane Mitch)
the words "President Dan Quayle"
Bill Gates' list of Most Frightening Things:
Steve Ballmer after his morning coffee
his own desk (think Hurricane Mitch)
the words "Computing Appliances"
Spend time at insider conferences and you'll hear
near universal agreement that computing appliances
-- information appliances, consumer devices, call
them what you will -- threaten the health of the
Wintel alliance and the industry that grew up around
it. Today's giants -- Microsoft, Intel, Compaq -- are
ill-prepared for the approaching sea change.
I told you last fall that the PC era is ending. That
three new devices will take the momentum away
from the desktop systems that have dominated
computing for the past 15 years. Click for more.
Now you're about to live it.
With America Online set to deliver screen phone
devices as part of its "AOL Anywhere" strategy, this
tidal wave is about to hit the shore. Click for more.
And it will translate into a wide variety of products --
NetTVs, game consoles, digital VCRs, Internet
terminals and more.
Three things are driving the trend:
Simplicity and ease of use: Because they don't
try to be all things to all people, consumer
appliances can perform a few tasks well. AOL is
banking on screen phones to woo consumers who
would never buy a PC, but might consider a simple
device for email or Web surfing.
Cost: Trying to be all things to all people -- the
desktop PC approach -- means you have to have a
robust, flexible device. A consumer appliance can
be streamlined for one job.
Diversity: Cheap, simple information appliances are
a natural for vertical applications. Just imagine how
valuable they will be in medicine, education, home
banking, industry, science, research.
Sounds promising. Why is it so frightening for Bill
Gates? Because Microsoft is behind. Its Windows
CE operating system doesn't make the grade. It
doesn't have any killer applications for the new
platform. And it doesn't have any skills building
stylish, ultra-friendly consumer products.
Just as Gates had to reposition Microsoft for the
Internet years back, he now has to reposition it for
the post-PC era. And it won't be easy. How's this
for irony: Apple may have a head start on Microsoft,
judging from the iMac.
And there's still plenty of money. Microsoft has $19
billion in the bank already and as Liz reports in
today's Need to Know section, the Redmond giant
continues to turn in stellar earnings. Click for more.
It will continue to milk monopoly profits from
Windows and Office for years.
So don't mistake me. Desktop PCs will be
important -- indeed essential -- for years to come.
But even today's PC loyalists will soon be buying
computing appliances instead of second or third
PCs.
Do you agree that Bill should be frightened? Use
the TalkBack link to send us your thoughts, or join
my Berst Alerts forum. And do it now. Or I'll hide
Annette's coffee thermos and send her over to your
office. And then you'll be frightened too.
MORE YOU SHOULD READ...
Smart Devices: Smart Features
Consumers to Go 'Tech' in 1999
High-Tech Rejuvenation
|
