GST,
>> is there any evidence to help us anticipate what AMZN will report?
Yes there is. But it requires reading spent tea leaves, etc....
Back in early March, amzn dropped from 140 to 120 on published speculation that their revenues will be short of Y98Q4. The cause of the spec was e-mails to inactive customers giving $5 rebate. Also an intensified TV ad campaign. Plus the firing of their ad agency.
But, as us bears were jubilating (and shorting), the infamous Jamie Kiggen, plus Henry B., and others issued their upgrades in which they said revenues will be "somewhat higher" sequentially. I believe one note said 5%.
If you follow amzn's style, you see their M.O. is to reduce expectation, then beat it. That way the cheer leaders can say "see, they beat the highest estimates in the range". Also I think it is unthinkable that amzn management is not in cahoots with their brokers on this. So my conclusion is if there was any doubt re rev's, it would have surfaced and been explained, excused, and made into a brilliant tactical move on the part of the most visionary management team in the history of commerce.
For this reason I have 400 shares long amzn, today. Tomorrow will be a different story. |
