Bux,
Again not a Q-party related post.
Brian, you seem to imply that China would only build CDMA networks if it allows them entry in the WTO. I don't think so. The commercial advantages of CDMA are quite compelling. That is why it has made such a "splash" around the world even though more mature standards are available. Additionally, China wants to ditch it's "third world" image and by using CDMA their engineers will be experienced in one of the worlds most important and fastest growing new technologies. Don't underestimate the importance of commercial advantages and using the "right" technology for the 21st century. Of course change takes time but once the momentum is built, CDMA will be unstoppable, whether in China or Europe.
Bux, you are very accurate about the above statement. However, Ramsey's previous post and my personal observation regarding China told me something else.
China is still a developing country. Yes, it needs to get the most advanced technologies to help modernize its country to the 21th century. However, can the average Chinese get by with the most basic living standard that they had before? The answer is yes. However, it is unlikely anymore. Can they get by with the second rated consumer products or second rated electronic products which are still way ahead in technology in comparison with their basic life style most still have so far? The answer is yes also. I think these points can be applied to any developing countries.
Therefore, GSM network is already the most modern technology in the Chinese view. They are more than happy with it. And still most people (90%) can not afford it without the Chinese government help. Yes, it will take a while before the average Chinese get a decent job to afford any the most advanced technology stuffs. A simple example is that a commercial printing store I visited in China is still using the early Intel-pentium (pentium 66 or 75) model computer to generate its company's most sales. And most of the family I visited do not know how to even read English nor do we expect them to know how to use a computer. Do you see the Chinese can really get by with whatever the second rated technology without any problem? GSM digital phone is the most advanced technology they can have and afford without USA telling them human right, etc. stuff.
Besides, USA put an exported restriction to sell P-III chip, Super-computer, sat. technology to China. If China can get it elsewhere, you bet China will get them elsewhere. Since the Chinese government still plays a huge role in determining the Chinese people's life style. Do you think they really have to get CDMA stuffs at all while USA play a high role to preach them how to run their country and human rights stuffs?
We Americans also have to find a balance between trade and politics regarding China. US businesses stand to lose some huge businesses over there if Americans play too much restriction on ourselves. Trade or politics??? Timing is of essence here. Indecisiveness will make GSM even more deeply rooted to China's ground.
That is why I wrote the Chinese will always play their politics with China trades as a bait. Do Americans want to go for "trade" or not? hmmmm.
Best,
Brian H.
|
