GORE AND BUSH COULD BOTH LOSE
By DICK MORRIS
FRONT-RUNNERS Al Gore and George W.
Bush each looks unbeatable in the race for his
party's presidential nomination. Each has not only
a three-to-one lead over his closest rival, but
more than twice as much money as his nearest
financial competitor. But both are very vulnerable.
Each can be beaten.
On the Democratic side, it's almost as if Gore and
Clinton have exchanged karmas. While Clinton
has clearly benefited from Gore's wholesome
family image, the hapless vice president's ratings
have fallen as Clinton sank deeper into his sex
scandal. Clinton had the sex and Gore took the
punishment. He is now rated unfavorably by as
many voters as like him. The most recent Fox
News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows that 42
percent of the voters are so uncomfortable with
the closeness of the Clinton-Gore relationship that
they hold Clinton's scandals against Gore.
Trying to act like a ''mini president,'' Gore is
running for the nomination from the Rose Garden.
Almost every day he emerges to announce a grant
or a new proposed law. For years he has been, in
effect, the chief of staff in the Clinton White
House. Increasingly, he is its spokesman as well.
But this strategy is flawed. Only a president can
run as an incumbent. Even a vice president must
submit to the indignities of a candidacy and take
positions on issues, campaign, and run for the
office he seeks.
Remember, vice presidents usually lose. Nixon
lost in 1960, Humphrey lost in 1968, and
Mondale lost in 1984. Bush won in 1988, but as
Lee Atwater put it ''Michael Dukakis, we could
never have done it without you.'' Gore needs to
return to his initial area of passion, the
environment. He needs to sell his issue as the
issue. Only on this turf can he summon the passion
and the charisma to overcome the moniker ''Gore
the Bore.'' Hillary is using the possibility of a
Senate candidacy to stand apart from her
husband. Gore needs to use the environment to
get away from and out ahead of Clinton.
Gore's formidable opponent, Bill Bradley has
raised over $4 million, more than enough to
compete. Should Bradley find his stroke and learn
to articulate a reason for running, he could be a
strong contender. It is almost inevitable that the
day will come when Gore will falter and the
former New Jersey senator will look like gold.
He'll get his face on all three news magazines in
the same week and be hailed as a potential upset
winner. How he handles himself then will make all
the difference. Will he play Gary Hart to Gore's
Walter Mondale? Or will he really stake out new
turf and move into ascendancy?
Bradley's vulnerability is his liberalism. An early
and constant opponent of the welfare-reform law
Clinton signed, he still does not recognize his
mistake even though millions steadily move from
welfare to work. America is not about to elect a
dogmatic leftist to the White House. But can Gore
pin the liberal label on Bradley while Bradley is
hanging Clinton around Gore's neck?
ON the Republican side, George Bush, like most
sons of famous fathers, has name recognition
which has so outpaced real information about him
that he is bound to disappoint as he begins to
campaign. The graveyards of politics are full of
sons and daughters of famous men and women
who tried to get elected on their own. California's
Maureen Reagan and Barry Goldwater Jr.,
Massachusetts' Tom O'Neill and Joe Kennedy,
Florida's Bruce Smathers, Missouri's Jim
Symington, North Carolina's Luther Hodges Jr.,
Tennessee's Bob Clements, Texas' Price Daniels,
Oklahoma's William Kerr, Minnesota's Hubert
Humphrey III, and many others tried and failed.
Ironically, President George Bush and Vice
President Al Gore are two who succeeded (both
had fathers who were senators).
The son of a political leader never quite lives up to
his father's reputation. His accomplishments are
not seen as his own, but rather the fruits of a big
head start in life. Questions about his intellect and
seriousness of purpose are common. When
people see him for the first time, they think of who
he is not - his father - not who he is.The
acquisition of genuine recognition is a negative, not
a positive, experience for such a candidate.
Bush senior was never much for the vision thing
and unless his son is awfully specific very early,
George W. Bush runs the risk that his candidacy
will be seen as motivated by a sense of entitlement
and inheritance rather than by any serious ideas
about issues. To be competitive, he will need to
quickly flesh out his idea of ''compassionate
conservatism..''
Lurking in the shadows is Elizabeth Dole. While
she has only raised less than $1 million, she could
be a dream candidate. Her Red Cross
background shows her compassion, administrative
ability and international experience. She's also
held two Cabinet posts, as secretary of labor and
of transportation.
If she catches on, she could take off. If she
finishes close in Iowa or New Hampshire, the
media would go crazy over the possibility of a
woman president. Republicans would realize that
their best chance against a Democrat would be to
narrow or eliminate the gender gap, something
Elizabeth Dole could do. It will be like the Colin
Powell craze all over again.
Elizabeth Dole's biggest weakness is her husband.
Four years after his defeat, much of America may
think that Elizabeth is a backdoor way for Bob to
be president. He would be seen as a male Hillary
Clinton, using his spouse's popularity to achieve
what he could not on his own.
Dole and Bradley will both be serious challengers
for their party's nomination. It is much, much too
early to award the nomination to either Gore or
Bush, two flawed front-runners. Stay tuned!
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