Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA)

AMPX 11.17

-6.5%

Jan 23 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gus who wrote (7670)	4/21/1999 12:42:00 PM
From: Hal Campbell	Read Replies (4) of 17679

Hi Gus ....good to see you drop by. Comment for the moment unrelated to your interesting subject.... Valuations.... Only approximating roughly.....the market seems to be pricing in only one potential AXC IPO, and not doing it by BCST standards but rather by IATV values. They are taking roughly half of IATV's volatile capitalization, dividing by 2 ( for AXC's future 51% position) ...then dividing by roundabouts 57 million shares ( assuming those 5 million convertibles have now been converted) then adding a buck for the rest of the company ( which sadly was the valuation near the end of last year ). In my opinion AXC remains a potentially high return gamble because though an excellent new structure and excellent new people are now in place, a great deal of their future success will rely upon timely execution of their strategies- and they will need a good break or two ( for which they are certainly due). Potentials for the high returns? If they can achieve core growth and/or MicroNet growth - the value of the "rest of the company" will go far beyond one. There may be more than one IPO in time...and there may well be more acquisitions (I think there will be). And though Michael Murphy declared the internet "mania" dead yesterday ( due to anticipated revenue growth shortfalls at Amazon and Yahoo) ...I rather think it will come in waves over the next few years - each waves focusing on different components of and approaches to the web business, and one of those waves is likely to carry some or all of the Ampex components well beyond their current valuations. It sure will likely take a good amount of time though....and in the meantime will probably be incredibly volatile.Personally I am going to at least attempt to snooze on it for quite awhile...and awaken about the time I will be forced to start selling - and hope I get lucky.

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