An answer/question from someone who has eyeballed AAPL from time to time, but never purchased it...
In the first place, the computer industry as a whole is in disfavor right now. If it is any comfort to you, over this past month AAPL's price performance has been as good (or as bad, depending on how you choose to look at it) as Dell's & Gateway's, and better (or less bad) than the performance of the rest of the pack...
Now, just how "cheap" is AAPL? Granted, the valuations are low; granted, it has produced four positive earnings surprises in a row...But then there are other factors. One may be dismissed as a demonstration of Wall Street anti-Apple prejudice: namely, lower projected earnings estimates for the next fiscal year. But how about the one-year 37% sales decline? (Figures from Telescan.) Shouldn't that give one pause? I am not saying it should. I am just wondering how one should calculate in all these factors when deciding whether a stock is "cheap" or not.
At the same time, I will admit that as someone who bought CPQ when it too seemed cheap -- and profitable as well -- I have a tendency now to be over-cautious.
jbe |
