Invasion force would take months: so keep bombing?
ireland.com
Col E.D. Doyle reviews four weeks of war and assesses
the NATO strategy of bombing
Doubts about the bombing campaign were quickly reflected in
the British quality newspaper headlines. At the end of the first
week on March 31st, John Keegan, the influential Daily Tele-
graph Defence Editor, wrote under the heading "Why air
strikes are not working". The Telegraph is the paper British
officers read.
Within days Serb morale was boosted by the crash of a
F117A Nighthawk Stealth bomber, said to have cost £30
million. But after about 7,000 sorties (one sortie is one flight by
one plane), that is the only NATO aircraft loss.
The Serb air defence system seems outdated. Radars have
been kept switched off to avoid attacks. Nevertheless the
system, a prime target, has been damaged. The 64 MiG21 and
15 MiG29 fighters are the teeth of the Serb fighter defences.
(NATO got MiG29s from former Warsaw Pact countries
when the Berlin Wall fell.) The claim that half have been
destroyed is probably true. Grossly outnumbered, Serb planes
rarely fly.
By the end of that first week it was announced that more
aircraft were coming, including tank-busting A10s. Ethnic
cleansing had started almost immediately and refugees were on
the move. NATO needed a better tank attack capability.
It was indicated that medium-, not low-level attacks would be
carried out. Perhaps the Stealth plane loss was a cause.
Low-level attacks were dangerous against the Serb
anti-aircraft guns and shoulder fired missiles.
The Royal Air Force has had difficulties in hitting targets
obscured by smoke or bad weather. A need for a bomb
"unaffected by obscurants or bad weather" such as the US
Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) seems agreed.
Media criticism mounted in the second week, but public
support in most NATO countries remained firm. Phase I of the
offensive, establishment of air superiority, had to be telescoped
into Phase II, attacks on Serb ground troops, to try to stop the
ethnic cleansing. It was not very successful.
On the 10th day two ministries involved in the ethnic cleansing,
and located 200 metres from an obstetrics hospital, were
targeted. The ministries were destroyed and the hospital was
undamaged except for broken glass. The decision was clear:
bombing would go on.
Had the hospital been hit, bombing could hardly have
continued. It was now extended from military targets to
installations capable of helping Serb forces, a wide concept. In
all the criticism, it should be remembered that if NATO had
stood back the critics would say "Something must be done".
There were signs that the KLA was getting its act together. A
command structure, with seven "operational zones", brigade
areas etc appeared. The Serbs were starting a spring offensive
to disrupt it, in any event.
The bombing now extended to bridges, oil installations,
industries, water-power supplies and communications.
American bombers and cruise missiles ranged far and wide,
but Milosevic remained defiant.
The refugee problem was now serious. Robbery, burning
homes, destroyed documents and rape were not NATO
propaganda to justify the bombing, as some Serbs claimed. As
the weather cleared the RAF used cluster bombs against tanks
and other vehicles. But the Serbs were dispersing their forces
and moving by night.
Three American soldiers were snatched by the Serbs in unclear
circumstances. The US refused to do a deal for them.
Blocks of flats in the Serbian town of Aleksinac were hit
accidentally in a raid on an artillery barracks a mile away. The
Yugoslav air force headquarters was hit by a missile. An army
corps HQ in Nis was bombed.
By the third week criticism was still persistent, as was public
support, which was also moving towards acceptance of ground
intervention. NATO denied this was contemplated. Bombing
went on.
Albania placed facilities at NATO's disposal. Its port of Durres
will be useful, as will its airfields, but the roads and facilities are
poor. So large quantities of troops and supplies can only reach
the Kosovo border via the Greek port of Thessaloniki
(Salonika) and Macedonia's capital, Skopje.
NATO announced that 8,000 troops in operation Allied
Harbour would help refugees by setting up "sanctuaries" in
Albania. Food, medical supplies and tents will be distributed.
On April 15th came the mistaken NATO attack on the refugee
convoys. The confusion and muddled explanations took five
days to sort out. Were the missiles launched from too high a
level?
At the end of four weeks the answer still seems to be more
bombing. Troops are being moved into Albania, but the
numbers needed for an opposed invasion of Kosovo may take
months to assemble. So continue bombing and hope Serbia
will crack?
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