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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 272.99-0.3%Dec 30 3:59 PM EST

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To: jbe who wrote (24252)4/21/1999 5:53:00 PM
From: Richard Habib  Read Replies (2) of 213177
 
jbe, while Apple is not out of the woods, this coming qtr should result in more than 15% revenue growth and greater than 20% earnings growth. Unit growth will be in the 30% range. Apple has a 2 X 2 matrix product plan. That is it sells a consumer and pro version of a desktop and a portable. So far Apple has only launched 3 of those product; the consumer portable will likely be announced at MacWorld in July. The combination of the 4th revenue stream coming on line together with a 7th good qtr demonstrating double digit top and bottom line growth may propel the stock to test its high of 47. There are other developments further out that could yield further upside.

The downside is that Apple is operating at a 11% tax rate vice the 25% it will have to deal with in 2000. Secondly, after this qtr Apple will have much harder yr to yr comparisons than it has had thus far. Apple's top line growth this last qtr was about 9% if you don't choose to parse the numbers and look at CPU growth. These are probably the reasons the stock sells where it does. Secondary reasons are a fire in one of their sub-contractors plants that may have an effect on iMac production this qtr and the news (Old to us) that Apple has not come to an agreement with their 2nd large retail chain, Best Buy, to sell iMacs.

Apple has shown great efficieny gains but is still operating with a hybrid direct/indirect distribution model. The balance sheet is extremely strong and by June, cash may represent as much as $15 per share, limiting downside. That's pretty much the story; investment decisions are yours alone. Rich
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