OT OT Fear and Greed in Las Vegas
Long time lurker, first time poster. I've learned a lot from you threadsters and have been entertained in the process. Let me tell you a story about these past few days, in the market and elsewhere, and hopefully I can return the favor.
A couple of months ago I'm feeling pretty froggy about paper profits and decide to go to Las Vegas to the National Association of Broadcasters convention. I know the wife will like the slot machines and I'd get to see a lot of gee whiz tech. We would leave Tulsa the day after IRS day, see the Rolling Stones at the MGM Grand that same night (last Friday). I'd go to a pre-convention video production workshop on Saturday and Sunday, go to the NAB opening day Monday and come home Tuesday. What could go wrong?
Well, it turns out many things can and did go wrong. I'd been planning for a month to lighten up on the margin, take out some money for hefty taxes and the trip. The portfolio was at an all time high on April 6, but as you all know the last couple of weeks have been pretty screwy. Schwab decides to change the AOL margin requirements, Compaq preannounces, all this sector rotation nonsense is gloated about for a few days on CNBC and before you know it it's April 15 and we're supposed to leave the next day and I'm about 40K poorer than the week before and confused as hell. I just want a couple of days off from watching these screens without being paranoid about it. I keep telling myself that the market doesn't know I'm not going to be paying attention but I don't believe it for a minute. Thursday sold 250 AOL for a small tax loss (didn't want to but thought it would ease my mind somehow), paid the taxes, took a couple thousand for the trip and headed for the airport at 5:45 am Friday. Forgot the laptop, drove 30 miles round trip at dangerous speeds, ran like OJ to the gate and barely made the flight. Arrived in Las Vegas, watched CNBC for a couple of hours and really didn't like the looks of things. Sold 150 AOL and thought this will surely keep me way out of margin territory and leave some on the Schwab Visa to pay the hotel bill if need be. Headed to the casino to get several drinks. I'd deal with this mess when I got home.
This next part reads kind of like a Venkie post from over on the Dell thread:
Friday night concert was great…$300 tickets off to the front left of stage…drank several margaritas…wife saw Paul Reiser and commented that he had a large bald spot…went to the workshop Sat. and Sun…go to Bellagio art gallery Sunday night…drink several Grand Marniers in comfy Bellagio bar while listening to two tv executives discuss the AOL / CBS rumors…one thought it would happen, the other didn't…woke up Monday am and see AOL down 7 or so before I can even leave for NAB…moron Pfeiffer is gone from CPQ…long long lines for buses and taxis…monster convention 115,000 people…buy a CNBC hat at NAB souvenir store…go to the Sands for internet and multimedia exhibits…absolutely amazed by the almost frightening power of the technology in that place…wife comments that one exhibitor's booth was bigger than her first apartment…huge Sony flat panel screens…HDTV everywhere…wonder what the market's doing…wicked fast SGI workstations running realtime uncompressed D1 video on 18” LCD flat panel displays…crystal clear digital projectors…incredible streaming audio and video internet stuff…WebTV interactive in huge MSFT booth…orange haired California twenty somethings all over the place…bus back to Monte Carlo…I don't care what these idiot fund managers buying donuts or aluminum or whatever are thinking, the growth is in tech…too much brain power in this field to ignore, this is what justifies those PE's…walk into room, flip on tv, and nearly faint…AOL CRUSHED DELL SPANKED DCLK STOMPED ATHM BLEEDING etc etc…
Oh a storm is threatnin my very life today if I don't get some shelter oh yeah I'm gonna fade away
Many pinch hits in room…head to casino for massive infusions of Zinfandel…know if I start drinking whiskey like I feel like doing I will be comatose within hours…playing slot machines and noticing the LED credit counter bounces around like CMGI…drunken contingency plans and what if scenarios racing through my head…down 60k+ this one day alone…that must have been a monster sell program to whack the Naz that bad…wife better hit jackpot…big Texas haired waitress keeps bringing the wine…plunk down 100 on crap table…running on autopilot betting the pass line…watch a cigar chompin tv guy and young babe lay out 1000 each in hundred dollar bills…he rolls, she rolls, I roll…they lay out another 1000 apiece and I put down another 100…gone in 20 minutes…money is vaporizing before my eyes…tomorrow could be awful…last month's large paper profits dripping away…
See the fire is sweeping our very street today burns like a red coal carpet, mad bull lost its way
I am a certified White Zinfandel Zombie…wish I had some codeine…stickman asks me if I've seen anyone famous I tell him wife saw Paul Reiser he says a friend of his saw Paul Reiser and he has a huge head! I say wife said he had a bald spot but stickman swears Reiser's head is humongous…can't calculate or remember odds in my head for any table games…start looking at people thinking they have huge heads…go to the bathroom and see my head looks extremely small and I'm wearing a CNBC hat…hope nobody mistakes me for an incoherent Ron Insana and beats the snot out of me…maybe I'll sell all tomorrow and buy Greyhound – no maybe Quaker Oats…stumble up to room after 12 hours of extreme chemical and capital abuse…wake up Tuesday am in drunken fog…glasses had so much crust on them from the night before I couldn't believe it…have to pack and get on plane in afternoon…I am very afraid to turn on the tv…starts good hope it holds…go grab a Fatburger on the strip and play James Brown, Big Joe Turner, and Etta James on the jukebox… market still looks far better than expected…final gambling session with wife, drink several Grand Marniers and get ready to leave for airport…casino host comps our entire hotel bill so don't have to worry about now impotent Schwab Visa card…get to airport, market held up, no details, hear about a shooting at a school somewhere…our plane arrives in Denver, walk in to smoking lounge…sit on couch 10 feet away from huge projection tv and can't fathom what I'm watching…live Denver tv coverage of shooting aftermath…wife and many others crying…tv coverage from school, sheriff talking, cutting away live to spontaneous prayer vigils… someone's grandma sitting next to us pounding vodka shots as I administer another few rounds of anesthesia before boarding again…coverage only interrupted for one Kosovo update…
War, children, it's just a shot away it's just a shot away
Rape, murder it's just a shot away it's just a shot away
Home by midnight…dog happy to see us pees on my shoe…never felt so good seeing my seventeen year old daughter after what I just saw…sleep in Wednesday…market recovers nicely for second day…I recover nicely for a first day…I'm down some and have faith in the future but as I'm writing this Wednesday night I still can't believe the abstract violence of the market and the real violence of these times we live in…
Love, sister, it's just a kiss away it's just a kiss away
C Nelson Reilly
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