195 is probably too high on the basis of 30X next year's earnings,
which the analysts are already predicting to be over $5.00
Those of you who got in at 30 to 70, and held, find the present price "breathtaking", I know. I had a son-in-law working at QCOM two years before the IPO. I got in on QCOM's IPO, and got out when I saw that the lawsuits and startup were going to slow it down for a few years, and made money elsewhere.
I sold some of MSFT and all of my AOL to buy QCOM this month at 120, 133, and 181, which makes it 65% of my portfolio, at an average of 146
I think earnings next year should be at least $7, when you look at this year's real 4.80. $7 earnings, at a 195 price, gives you a 36PE, which is ridiculously cheap for a Gorilla like Qualcomm.
I know the market, not you are I, will determine the right PE for this stock. IMO, it should be at the same as CSCO or MSFT.
The market historically undervalues gorillas like Qualcomm. In addition, analysts have been badmouthing the company for so long that it will take a while for the market to catch up with the value of this company.
I think 300 is not out of line for this stock by the end of the year.
I think that a double every year is the least we can expect.
Yes it will be volatile! We may drop 20 to 30 in the morning, although I doubt it. We will have a sharp drops several times in the next few years because of various "bad news" from China, etc.
I still think this is the new CSCO, only better.
Sure is a nice day.
LindyBill |
