Here are my expectations for the conference call:
1) The call will begin promptly at the appointed time;
2) The overall tone will be positive;
3) The outlook beyond six months will be as crappy as it always is;
4) We will rah!rah! some metal wins;
5) We will RAH!RAH! Teres;
6) We will subtly pull forward the breakeven point -- by pointing out that the pricing environment has improved over the last several months and that overhead absorption is improving (and or materials savings);
7) Steve or Jim will report back from Asia (whoever was there most recently) ... or at least Jim will discuss the report back from Asia;
8) Steve or Jim will be heading to Asia this week for an update;
9) I think Jim will be as positive as he has been for the last several years about the recovery;
10) There will be some guidance and a Q&A.
During the Q&A, the questions will be scattered about ... but, people will be most interested with trying to determine just how the operating leverage will manifest itself during the next 91.25 days. We will get six different questions regarding breakeven if it is not explained thoroughly during the first answer.
"So, your old guidance was for exiting C2Q at breakeven ... now, it sounds like you may earn a couple of pennies next quarter ... why?"(someone from DMG)
"So how many TERES are out in the field at this point and what has the feedback been and when is TERES going to start contributing on the revenue line?" (Elliott Rodgers)
(Susan Billat) "Great quarter guys. Could you tell us what you are hearing from Japan at this point?" This would be a great time for the "Steve or Jim Were Just There Answer" ... followed by the "Steve or Jim Are Heading Over There For An Update Answer" ...
(Mark Fitzgerald) "Given that I said you were worth $40, could you explain my rational of giving you such a modest multiple to peak earnings?"
(Ali Irani) "Great quarter guys. Could you walk me through how the recovery plays out in the second half. Secondly, even though secondly is not a word, could you give me the numbers for the September quarter?"
(Gunnar Miller) "How come Elliott Rodgers always gets to go before me? I now work for Goldman, not Paine Webber, doesn't that give me some preferential treatment? Kinda like being a member of the Stonecutters? For Mercedes, could you walk us through the gross margins by product line and give us some more granularity as the the operating expense line? According to my model, I have a hard time keeping the EPS number below $3.00 as you start to return to more normal revenue levels. Is this about what you see?"
"How do you think you can compete in CMP with that glorified belt-sander?" (Jay Morgani, AMA Capital)
(Ed White, Lehman Bros.) "Does my voice sound nasally to you? Second, could you touch upon the book:bill number ... was it greater than the industry average for the quarter?"
(follow-on question from Elliott Rodgers) "To whom have you shipped your TERES? If you won't give us that, could you break it down by geography? Great quarter guys. That's two questions to one Miller!"
Ahhh, the quarterly conference call ... so much build-up, so little substance ... but, maybe not this time ...
--Duker
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