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To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (9352)	4/22/1999 9:42:00 AM
From: Ken Pomaranski	Read Replies (1) of 10072

I screwed up! It was late when I posted ;) I was off by a factor of 10 in my percentages: << The digital cam market is projected to be 4m units in 1999, 10m in 2000, 40m in 2005. I assumed 1% penetration in 1999, and 2% IN 2000. This would actually be about 1/3 the ZIP inclusion rate at ZIP rampup. I also assumed a 3-1 tie ratio >> I assumed TEN PERCENT in 1999 and TWENTY PERCENT in 2000. (actually 400,000 units in 1999, and 1.7m units in 2000) This would be well above the ZIP inclusion rate, and serves as an upper bound in my mind. About inclusion in PDAs: Not in the low end: Too expensive. I'm not sure the 'high-end' PDA market is big enough to make any difference. Also, this power issue needs to get resolved along with this fragile disk issue (can't transport disk in drive, can't write on label, can't put two labels on disk) These issues are fatal in the low-end consumer market. I believe that Glore's 10% revenue for CLIK! is dead wrong. If I am proven wrong, you guys can laugh me off the thread. kp

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