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Technology Stocks : Compaq

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To: rupert1 who wrote (59290)4/22/1999 11:19:00 AM
From: jim kelley  Read Replies (2) of 97611
 
Victor,

Let us go through this once again. 20 +32= 52
42+16=58. Thus, for the 2 quarters I was low by 6 cents per share.
On the other hand most of the people here gave consensus figures which were 42+35= 77. So the joke is on you Victor.

My position has been that CPQ could have made its 32 cent number if they could have stuffed the channel again. But instead CPQ internal inventories are 4.8 weeks and their external inventories are 4 weeks for a total of 8.8 weeks. Additionally, their accounts receivable jumped up on lower sales indicating that they had to make deals to get some of the channel to take stuff. This may come back against them in the form of price protection writeoffs. One reason their margins are reduced is that they suffered from price protection due to their Q4 bloat.

Not a pretty picture!

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