Dan,
Jalapeno should be on par performance-wise (at the same clock speed) with Intel Coppermine chip, which is going to be Intel's mainstream chip starting in 3rd quarter.
Coppermine is going to have 256K on die L2 and Katmai MMX instruction set. It will be introduced on .18u process at 600 MHz. (Paul, correct me if I am wrong here).
Sounds like a great chip. The only downside is the price: probably in $600 to $800 range.
The challenge for NSM (and it's shareholders) is that Intel has a history of delivering on time, even over-delivering. NSM has (in the CPU and LAN market) earned a record of not delivering or under-delivering.
So by the time Jalapeno is out (if it is out on time in late Q4) at 600 MHz, Intel top of the line will have moved to 666 to 700 MHz, the 600 MHz by then will be in $300 to 400 range. NSM typically is able to charge about 50% of Intel price for the same performance, so we can expect the price of M3 (Jalapeno) to be between $150 and $200. This btw is the most optimistic scenario.
I think NSM would do very if they were able to increase the ASP from current $30 - $50 to anything over $100.
If Intel's history is a good predictor of the future, Intel should be able to reach speeds of probably 900 MHz using the .18u process.
NSM history in CPU manufacturing is none to poor - the current 25u process, but anyway, a move in the right direction. If the .18u process is at least acceptable, there is a chance for NSM to make money.
I think one thing NSM should look into / concentrate on is to build low power chips x86 chips with embedded network functionality.
Here is my prediction for the hottest product of year 2000 (write it down, you heard it here first): a home communication server.
This device will be a combination of router / proxy server / network hub / personal web server / home PBX for IP based telephony (which btw is going to replace the traditional analog based POTS lines)
I think the early adopters will be all of you geeks reading this, but in a few years, every home will have one.
NSM has most of the pieces of this puzzle, they just need to put this together on 1 or a few chips and bring it to market.
This communication server can work with the Webpad like devices as well in wireless scenario, or the traditional wire-line.
Joe |
