America On-Line (AOL) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL)

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To: robert duke who wrote (12396)	4/22/1999 10:08:00 PM
From: musea	Read Replies (1) of 41369

Robert, I don't think a split is likely, because of the magnitude of the recent drop in price (around 170 down to around 115) even though it's come back a lot. I think that based on the number of subscribers this quarter vs. last (I think it's 17 million vs. 14 million) we ought to have earnings in the .11/share range. If the other revenues like ad revenue and percent of commerce grows faster than a linear function of the number of subscribers for the first time this quarter, then we ought to do better than that. I am expecting this to happen at any time, if AOL executes on its business plan as put forth. If we get as much as .14, we will be in clover unless there is another disaster. We'd like to think that all available information is already factored into the price. I suspect that an upside surprise of one or two cents is figured in. But if we get more than that, I think some exuberance is justified because of the effect of the business plan being better understood and trusted. -musea

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