Hi Jim, the following has an interesting item about refinery closures for oil near the bottom of the article:
FORTUCAST FINANCIAL TIMER
PRECISE TIMING AND MOVEMENT ANALYSIS BY BARRY ROSEN
"Serving Futures Traders Since 1987"
UPDATED APRIL 21 FOR MARKETS OF APRIL 22, 1999
STOCKS and JUNE S & P e-minis
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Topping into May 1-4.
DAILY CHART TREND: Lower.
TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Lower.
NEXT HOURLY CHART
NEXT DAILY CHART
NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 4/23 L
TURN: 5/1 H
TURN: 10/99 L
DAY TRADER'S PLANNER FOR JUNE S & P: (04/22) We got our intraday
hotline subscribers out of shorts at the 1325 region to preserve a profit but
this market is moving into high volatility mode--and it's not over yet.
Wednesday's action, which retraced 78% of the fall from 1372 to 1290, is of
the type that occurs at the beginning of a consolidating triangle position
when a quick "b" wave occurs. The bullish scenario suggests that
pullbacks will hold the 1340-1344 region, and a rally to 1374 should develop
into Monday. The energy is there for it but I doubt that we will have
follow-through buying on Thursday. The more conservative perspective
favors a pullback to the 1318-1320 region. A light sale on Thursday for day
traders looking for at least the 1344 region may be warranted if the market
does not gallop overnight. Because of the friendly cycle that peaks into
Monday, we will be cautious about selling this market, but we really do not
have a place to buy.
(04/22) Wednesday's action reminds us that we still need one more new
high on the DOW for a pattern completion, and, as we have been saying, we
think the earliest chance of that is after May 1. We are confident about new
highs on the DOW up to the 11088-12000 region but we have been skeptical
about new highs on the S & P cash but we are increasing our chances of
that, looking for about 1376. Resistance on NASDQ is at 2513 and the
breakdown on Monday is probably too irreparable to create new highs. The
only way mutual funds are making money is by selling all their stuck stocks
and buying the DOW and Microsoft and Intel-- and at some point even these
stocks will not be able to go up. We have talked about the naive speculative
cycle that continues into May and it is fascinating to see even with Russia
about to default on its debt again (is anyone talking about it on CNBC?) the
market is managing to stage absurd rallies. Bears are going to continue to
ride the roller coaster but will eventually prevail. No need to add shorts or
buy new put options or short mutual funds until May 1.
CYCLES: The 12-year optimism cycle that has generated this rally does not
really shift until after May 22, and if the market cannot fall much I suspect it
will grind higher into May 1-4.
BIGGER PICTURE: It will take one more new high on the DOW to make a
stronger case for a pattern completion off of the October low. Weekly chart
patterns are even suggesting a chance of a move to 11800-12,000. Once we
do top, we think that we will have to fall, and DOW 7400 appears to be the
mostly likely target this summer. I do not think we will see such levels for
again for many years so do not get caught up in media hysteria or hopes
that it will bounce back.
OEX NOTES: (04/22) We may have gotten out of puts early on Monday but
we still should have another entry into May 1 for new puts so be patient.
OPTIONS TRADERS: We recommend that you switch to trading mini
contracts on the S & P since options are so unforgiving. If you choose
options, make sure you evaluate delta decay of options, manage your
money and buy options that have enough time in them and do not trade
against the major weekly chart trend.
INTRADAY SERVICES now in effect: QUICK-TRADES HOTLINE: updated at
8:20 am and hourly from 9:30 am-2:30 pm CDT. Now contains more
commentary at $4.95 PER CALL. Call 1-800-788-2796 for details. S & P
COMMENTARY LINE: Updated with pre-opening comments at 8:20 and at
10:35 am, 12:35 pm, and 2:00 pm; more detailed and priced quarterly.
JUNE T-BONDS
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Bottoming.
DAILY CHART TREND: Lower.
TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Lower.
NEXT HOURLY CHART
NEXT DAILY CHART
NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 4/23
TURN: 4/27 L
TURN: 5/99 L
SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Hold shorts with a 122.25 stop.
(04/22) Hourly stochastics still have a ways to go on the downside to get
oversold but we will watch this one closely as cycles are not negative the
next few days but suddenly will turn very negative as we move into
Monday/Tuesday. First support is at the 121.28 region and then at the 121.21
and 121.01 and 120.27 regions. Until we close above 123.00, daily
stochastics are still favoring sales.
T-BONDS INTRADAY COMMENTARY LINE NOW AVAILABLE: Updated 8:15
am, 10:40 am, and 12:40 pm. Call 1-800-788-2796 for details.
FOREIGN CURRENCY NOTES
(04/22) The dollar should be lower into Friday. We are close to the first target
of 101. Pullbacks may be minor and a new high into Monday could develop.
JUNE DEUTSCHEMARK
DAILY CHART TREND: Bottoming and higher.
TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Higher.
NEXT HOURLY CHART
NEXT DAILY CHART
NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 4/23 H; 4/26 L
TURN: 4/29 H
TURN: 11/99 L
SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Hold longs with a 5399 stop.
(04/22) The DM is on schedule and could even reach up to the 5595 region
into April 29. We would continue to favor longs until then with the next
swing high due into Friday. We probably will get a pullback over the
weekend.
LONGER-TERM: Weekly chart patterns suggest an eventual breakdown into
next year to 5150, with a major monthly chart cycle low into November.
JUNE JAPANESE YEN
DAILY CHART TREND: Lower.
TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming and higher.
NEXT HOURLY CHART
NEXT DAILY CHART
NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 4/22 L; 4/26 H
TURN: 4/26 H
TURN: 9/99 L
POSITION TRADING STRATEGY: Hold puts.
SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 8390 or better with a 8315 stop.
(04/22) We bought one day early but should bottom at the 8387 region and
reach higher into the first few hours of Monday. We would at least expect a
move back to the 8562 region and hold the daily trendline at 8325. Daily
stochastics are starting to turn lower but may be giving a false signal here
so we will again go for a light buy.
BIGGER PICTURE: The rally off of the March high appears to be a 5th wave
that will be complete around the 7850 region into the middle of April. The
May rally will probably end up as a 3-wave rally to the whole decline from
January and then the big push down should start sometime in June.
OVERALL: The chances of a Yen meltdown to 160 Yen or lower by the end
of the year seem inevitable given a number of economic factors. We will look
for places to accumulate major short positions using Sept. and Dec. put
options this month as a major move lower should come in April when the
Japanese Y2K problem comes to the surface.
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
DAILY CHART TREND: Lower.
TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming and higher.
NEXT HOURLY CHART
NEXT DAILY CHART
NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 4/23 H
TURN: 5/1 H
TURN: 5/1 H
SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Exit longs on Friday.
(04/22) The Canadian held the lower target area and should bounce one
more day We will exit on Friday and look for lower prices into Monday.
Resistance is at 6750, 6769 and 6785 with major resistance at 6808. We are
more inclined to expect a slight new low into Monday toward the 6694
region if we cannot rally very much. Daily stochastics did turn down here so
the rally may be light and it is starting to look countertrend. Linear cycle
highs still could hold this market up until at least May 1 in congestive action.
JUNE GOLD
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Bottoming.
DAILY CHART TREND: Topping and lower.
TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming and higher.
NEXT HOURLY CHART
NEXT DAILY CHART
NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 4/26 H
TURN: 5/6 H
TURN: 4/99 L
SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Exit shorts market on open. Buy market on
open with a 280.90 stop.
(04/22) Cycles for gold are supportive into Monday and into April 30 so we
are inclined to cover and stand aside. We do not like the market enough to
buy, but until we see higher levels into early May, we are wasting margin
money for now. Eventually, we expect to breakdown to the 278 region. First
support is at the 283.90 region.
MAY SILVER
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Topping and lower into April.
DAILY CHART TREND: Bottoming and higher.
TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Higher.
NEXT HOURLY CHART
NEXT DAILY CHART
NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 4/26 H
TURN: 4/26 H
TURN: 4/99 H; 9/99
SWING TRADING STRATEGY: hold longs.
(04/22) Downside patterns still would allow a push toward 506 but we are
more inclined to expect an upside breakout toward 523 or 540. We will hold
longs with a 503 stop. There is a very energetic cycle and it is safer to get
long. The worst downside is probably the 506 region.
JUNE CRUDE
DAILY CHART TREND: Higher.
TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming and higher.
NEXT HOURLY CHART
NEXT DAILY CHART
NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 4/23 H
TURN: 4/23 H; 5/6 H
TURN: 5/99 H; 8/99 L
SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Exit longs 1840.
(04/22) We are willing to be long 1-2 more days, but if we hit the 1845-1855
region, it will be time to consider a light short. Our 4th-wave pullback target
area is still the 1525-1540 region followed by a high into May 6.
LONGER-TERM: (3/24) We do see a bounce to at least 1885 into the late April
or mid-May cycle high. Longer-term cycles this year suggest a May high, an
August low, and then higher prices into November.
MAY GASOLINE
(04/22) Minimum upside for gas is the 5470 region and we will exit by
Friday's close as the market is struggling. The chances of 5800 appear small
this week until we get another pullback. Our 5th-wave high is 5800, with the
latest top by May 6-7.
LONGER-TERM: We like the long-term play on gas into the end of the year
as refinery shut-downs are likely to create gasoline shortages. The US Dept.
of Energy estimated that only 30% of US refineries would be operating.
SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Hold longs with a 5160 stop.
Have a great trading day! Barry Rosen |
