Kosovo Crisis Divides Slovakia on Eve of Presidential Elections
Summary:
The Slovak government's cooperation with NATO during its campaign
against Yugoslavia is polarizing the Slovak population in advance
of the country's May 15 presidential elections. While NATO may
affect the outcome of Slovak elections, the outcome of Slovak
elections could equally impact NATO. Should former Prime
Minister Vladimir Meciar -- a populist and nationalist -- be
elected Slovak President, it could seriously threaten Slovakia's
relationship with NATO and therefore limit NATO's current and
future strategic viability.
Analysis:
On April 21, the Slovak government granted NATO permission to
transport military equipment over Slovak territory for operations
in Yugoslavia. Slovak assistance is crucial to support any
substantial operations from NATO member Hungary. Hungary is the
only NATO front-line state in the Kosovo crisis, yet it is
totally isolated by land from other NATO members. The Slovak
government's cooperation with NATO is, however, increasing
polarization of its population, already divided over NATO's air
strikes in Kosovo and the future Slovakia's membership in the
alliance.
A majority of Slovaks sympathize with the Yugoslav people. This
is natural given their sympathy toward and concern over a Slovak
minority living in Yugoslav region of Vojvodina. According to
recent polls, 62.5 percent of the Slovak population approves
neither of NATO air strikes in Yugoslavia nor of the decision to
open Slovak airspace to NATO. Moreover, 50 percent of the
population opposes plans for Slovakia to join NATO. In general,
the Kosovo issue has sharply divided the Slovak population
between supporters and opponents of Mikulas Dzurinda's pro-
Western government in the run up to the May 15 presidential
elections.
Prior to granting NATO a general permission to use Slovak
territory for transportation of military equipment, the Slovak
government had opened, on March 24, the country's airspace to
NATO combat aircraft. The government coalition has been strongly
criticized for this decision by opposition parties, mainly by Jan
Slota's Slovak National Party (SNS) and former Prime Minister
Vladimir Meciar's Movement for Democratic Slovakia (HZDS).
Following the decision to permit NATO to fly through Slovakia's
airspace, the opposition in parliament attempted to pass a no-
confidence vote against Slovak Minister of Foreign Affairs Eduard
Kukan. The ruling coalition in parliament was able defeated the
measure.
Divided over the Kosovo issue, Slovakia is now entering
presidential campaign period. Slovakia has been without a
president since the expiration of Michal Kovac's term in office
in early 1997, due deep political divisions which manifested
themselves in several unsuccessful attempts by parliament to
elect the president. For the first time, a direct presidential
election will be held in Slovakia on May 15. There are ten
registered presidential candidates, with five of them having a
real chance to be elected. The April 13 poll conducted by "Ustav
pre vyskum verejnej mienky" showed strong support for ruling
coalition's candidate Rudolf Schuster (32.4%). Three non-
partisan candidates -- Magda Vasaryova (19.1%), former president
Michal Kovac (8.3%), and Juraj Svec (5.7%) -- agreed on April 20
that two of them would give up their candidacy ahead of the
election to prevent former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar (4.9%)
from being elected a president. Note that at the time when the
poll was conducted, Meciar had not as yet announced his
candidacy.
Well known for his ability to mobilize the population in his
favor during periods of political controversies, Meciar has a
potential to become one of the two candidates that will compete
for the presidential post in the run off, second election
scheduled for May 22. Moreover, it is likely that the leader of
the nationalists, Jan Slota (5.3%), will give up his candidacy
ahead of the election in favor of Meciar's candidacy. In the
first round, Meciar will, therefore, compete against one strong
non-partisan candidate and the former communist, now reformist
candidate, mayor of the city of Kosice, Rudolf Schuster. The
likelihood of populist and nationalist Meciar being elected
Slovak President and re-entering Slovak political arena cannot be
excluded.
Vladimir Meciar's 1994-1998 government did not live up to Western
principles of democracy, resulting in the country being
sidetracked from joining the European Union and NATO. Although
Meciar's HZDS always officially proclaimed its pro-Western
orientation, its political behavior pulled the country in the
opposite direction. Most recently, HZDS openly criticized Slovak
government's decision to open its airspace to NATO. If elected
president in May, Meciar would undoubtedly alter Slovakia's
policy of supporting NATO in the Yugoslav crisis, likely denying
NATO use of Slovak airspace and railways. In the short term,
this would limit NATO's ground options against Yugoslavia. In
the long term, it could perpetuate a geographic weakness in the
alliance, with Slovakia as a potentially hostile salient between
Poland and the geographically isolated Hungary. NATO should not
take Bratislava's current gesture for granted, as without some
reciprocal good will gesture it could be Slovakia's last friendly
overture to the organization.
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