UMG will reject T's bid, at least for awhile. It may be that UMG's shareholders will revolt and tender their shares, but management must stay the course with Comcast.Consider, if ATHM is such a valuable property, then UMG must be also, so management should hold out for a higher bid. It's win-win for them and T's low offer suggests another suitor will come in to make a higher bid. I could see the bidding rise to $150 per share since UMG is probably worth $300.
The issues are complex and Rtev has tried to touch upon them. Regulatory issues will now surface because the FCC rulings or non-rulings, call them guidelines, carried the sense that excess concentration by one provider would invite review. T does not need to own facilities in order to provide their service. T should elect to avoid such ownership. To seek it implies they wish inordinate control and that control violates the intent of the FCC which now has purview. As long as T has only incidental ownership of facilities so that significant facilities could be owned by other competitors, no intervention by the FCC would occur.
The implications for ATHM are unclear as they have been since Comcast made the silent break. Certainly the shares will rise, but a bidding war could mute any advance and the eventual outcome could be quite negative. There is no point in speculating about these matters since they are immensely complex with many eddies and cross currents. About the only right move available is to own any cable stock, or is it?
Dave Horne keeps telling me that COX is the one to buy. I keep hearing that DSL is gaining on us so I don't want to look backward. If COX jumps in order to strut for tender and DSL makes the intermediate market sing while all the boys are bidding for video dreams, things could slow down a lot down At Home. Then there's always NEM and ABX. You guys like 'Bugs don't you? I like that, 'Bugs@Home. |
