IDPH--Positive preliminary results for pivotal trial of ID Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : IDPH--Positive preliminary results for pivotal trial of ID

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To: Don Cheng who wrote (407)	3/1/1997 6:31:00 PM
From: I. Luttichuys	of 1762

Don, I feel like anything is possible with IDEC but, I feel we have had a subtle change in this pattern. We have had some news which was unexpected and, even after the fact, the stock did not react much. On Feb 10 a patent was issued and on Feb 12 IDEC acquired rights for the small molecule with activity against topoisomerase I from Pharmacia Upjohn. These were unanticipated. Interestingly we didn't see much reaction following either event. The type of news we are expecting does not have a pin-pointable release date as items in the past have. We do not know when Merrill Lynch might have an opinion of IDEC nor what they might say when they express it. We also do not know when the NDA might be filed except in general terms. I think in the past, knowing exactly when news was expected was important to the kinds of sell on the news reactions we were seeing. Also, these situations were aggravated by the fact that SmithKline's venture capital arm was disposing of shares if I remember correctly and we had a couple of instances in which information was incorrectly reported which harmed IDEC such as the reports which came out of Cohen. My feeling now is that we have several news items which are of uncertain release date. We have some news to which the stock never properly reacted (and it could be argued that at least one of these may be fundamental to adding value to this company) and we have a situation in which many who could be shaken out of IDEC have already gone. I think most of those remaining are the Hard-Core Old Guard such as ourselves. We are the kinds of shareholders who would be most difficult to scare-off at this point in time. This is all just conjecture but, my feeling is that, although that game was very easily played before (buy as news approaches and sell as it is released), the situation now makes at a little more difficult and maybe that will be enough in itself to see us above 30. My hope is that things stay sane and our price appreciation does not occur in the kinds of leaps and bounds as we have recently been through. Looking at the chart I could swear, some of those rises and falls are as about as close to vertical as you can get without it all having occured on a single trading day. BENNETT

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