Richard:
We have a war, we have currency crisis, we have trade problems, the world is awash in debt, and now a world class gold mine goes kaput. The gold prices reaction, unchanged to lower.
The central banks control approximately 30 thousand tons of the stuff. Making allowances that 12 thousand tons have been leased, that leaves approximately 18 thousand tons left. Assuming half of that is inviolate, that leaves 9000 tons that the cb's are ready and willing to throw at the market in whatever way it takes to control the price of gold. This is more than enough gold to cover the short position, and the need to repatriate any\ gold that has been leased and that is not rolled forward by the CB owning it.
This reality can keep gold in check for quite some time. What can change this, the easies scenario would be a change in administration to one that has latent feelings for gold. Without US support, the control of the price of gold would begin to lanquish quickly. Unfortunately, this is a remote possibility.
Ken |
