Verity (VRTY) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Verity (VRTY)

VRTY 2.400

0.0%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: stantheman who wrote (283)	3/1/1997 8:23:00 PM
From: Kumar Nathan	of 1011

Hi Stan: Your question of what changed my mind is the following. I looked at the volatility of the stock market for the past 2-3 days especially from the day Alan G. farted in the elevator.( This is the second time he did that) VRTY is staying at$ 9.75-10 and not moving lower than that. This is a crucial period because VRTY is expected to announce its earning shortly. This tells me that something good is going to come out of this stock. The thing that concerned me was the option trading on last Thursday and before. Not much activity. This is not typical especially for a volatile stock. Thirdly when you analyse the chart. The stock has double dipped which means that the stock will climb up. How much? I dont know. I am very cautious. If the earnings and conference calls are good, you will find a good run up. Otherwise it will be moderate. I dont know when the conf.call going to be. I expect this quarter to be better than expected by at least few pennies in terms of reduction in expenses. This quarter has lots of holidays especially Dec- Jan and this is the time people will be taking a lot of their vacation. You will save a lot due to this and your balance sheet will look good. I dont know whether VRTY has shutdown or not. But most company's will book better quarter due to cost saving. Currently the market is expecting a net income of $.01.IMO this is easily achievable. Future performance is heavily depend on all the questions I asked in my earlier positngs #280. If the mgmt answer them quite satisfactorily then the stock will perform otherwise it will go to tank. Furthermore between Tuesday and Friday you will find H&Q and Probably Sound View will come out with some recommendations/ opinions about this stock. Also I posed myself a lot of questions. Do you think that VRTY will be acquired by somebody? Are they available for sale? Is there a possible suiter? Is the management always with a company for longer than 3 - 4 years at a stretch? What is their track record? Who is their main customer? what is the nature of the customer? Let me stop at this point and start answering one by one. Do you think that VRTY will be acquired by somebody? Yes. VRTY, in my opinion eventually will be up for sale. Is there a possible suiter? Yes there are quite a lot of suiters. Adobe could be one. Most importantly CSCO could be too. I say CSCO because at least 20% of VRTY business is with CSCO. This was last quarter. I am anxious to see the customer mix this quarter. My gut feeling is that it could be more. CSCO grew by 70% this quarter compared to last quarter. IMO VRTY's share would be higher too. Assuming VRTY's share with CSCO is more than 35% and VRTY has alliance with NSCP, IFMX etc., I believe that acquiring VRTY would be a better opportunity for CSCO. This is purely a very wild card. My guess is ADBE and CSCO could be a possible suiter. Is the management always with a company for longer than 3 - 4 years at a stretch? What is their track record? My Personal opinion is that the current management is with the company for close to 4 years and I think they will move on to something different and better. The management is purely a turn around type of people and will normally get bored after 3-4 years. The best way to exit is with some green bags. Therefore my prediction is that a major marriage or acquisition might happen within 6 months. Secondly the stock is also at a lower level which makes it more attractive. Search Enging market: My feeling is that the market is not that great. A saturation has reached. Too many players most of them are not in good shape. Technology wise I am not excited. IMO this stock appear to be a cautious buy for near-term. Thats why I got in. Regards Kumar

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next