From Heinz b, a post I saved and reread occasionally
127.0.0.1:3456/SI/~wsapi/investor/reply-8864911
my own confused thoughts, haven't really changed much
127.0.0.1:3456/SI/~wsapi/investor/reply-9031804
We've had vicious sell offs in individual equities and sectors, mostly high P/E, high beta stocks. But we still haven't had the market wide "flush" we've become accustomed to. Looking at the OEX p/c ratio alone you would think that we just had a sell off as vicious if not worse than Aug and Oct 98. Yet when you look back to Jan99 we've had 5 30-40 OEX point sell offs, 3-5% roughly, each lasting about a week or less. Each sell-off set a higher low and was then followed by a higher high. Totally bullish, can't be denied.
When you look at the July98 top to OCT98 bottom we had one big one, from roughly OEX 575 to 455ish, or about 20%. Someone look at a weekly OEX or SPX chart with a 13day ema, this was the only prolonged breach of that line in the last 3 years. That line has only been hit a few times since 10/15, only intraday stuff, but has provided support. Thing is that we keep correcting down to this line faster and faster. sorta.
I think it's interesting that since the 96 bottom the p/c ratio has been getting more extreme. I think that can actually be attributed to dorks like me throwing their $$$ into OEX puts everytime "the BK" seems iminent, funny how most of us miss it. heh heh heh, and ugh ugh ugh for balance.
decisionpoint.com
Makes me wonder how we'll get the kind of sell off we've had 4 times in the last 3 yrs, one that brings the SPX, OEX down to their 50day sma on a weekly chart.
That's the correction line I keep in mind. And the one I think is necessary to flush the market clean for a new, healthy leg up. Till then I guess I'll stick with my little trades long or short.
Cheers,
D |
