[COMS on ADSL]
<<< Why wouldn't ADSL suceed, the copper lines are all already in
place, while ISDN is not?????
Am I missing something?>>>
The standard ISDN argument from the start has been: "If telco ISDN doesn't suceed, ADSL won't." I suspect they hold onto it because they want ISDN to succeed so desperately.
The following paragraph pretty much sums up the corporation mentality:
<<<
* 56K modem is the most significant current threat to ISDN Basic Rate acceptance in the US
* Cable modem can grab a significant portion of the consumer internet access space from BRI
* It is doubtful that ADSL will be a true consumer market competitor to ISDN BRI
* ADSL tariffs will likely be higher than ISDN BRI . . . but
* ADSL will take market share from ISDN among business users
Flat rate, predictable billing
ADSL may be less expensive than leased lines
<<<
They're doubtful ADSL will be true consumer market competitor to ISDN *but* it'll take market share from business users. So if both 56K and ADSL take the business user, who, then, is going to capture the consumer? ISDN? I doubt it.
The Dataquest researcher I spoke with at ComNet a few weeks ago said their latest findings show ADSL is cheaper than ISDN in both installation and fees. Does COMS know this? They have to.
I think the slides show the mentality of the ISDN vendor more than it shows market reality.
If you have any doubt, phone Pat Weber at TI and ask him their market projections. They'll knock your socks off.
Regards,
Pat
From COMS website:
<<<
Are we on the verge of new megabit speed services that include 56K, ADSL and cable modems, and do they spell the end for ISDN?
As the population of users needing access to the Internet and corporate networks grows, so does the need for higher speed networking technologies. In the United States, that's what has influenced the need for ISDN and emerging technologies like 56K, ADSL and cable. Fueled by easy to use, affordable equipment from vendors and services availablility from carriers and ISPs, ISDN in the US has experienced continued growth and in the past year has become a household acronym synonymous with Internet and remote access for enterprise network managers teleworkers, and even to some extent consumers.
And now, just as we've reached this milestone, the industry is looking ahead to the day when even higher speed technologies will be available. Does the availability of cable and ADSL mean an end for ISDN?, or can it continue to proliferate in the face of (seemingly) overwhelming competition?
ADSL Market Positioning
ADSL Market Positioning
High speed, low cost, connectionless service
Up to 8M bps downstream, ~1M bps upstream
Star topology, dedicated bandwidth per subscriber
Flat fee of ~$100/mo for Internet access
Target Application
Internet Access
Remote Access
Interactive video
Target market
Residential
Small Business
ADSL Standards
ADSL Standards
DMT versus CAP
Discrete multitone (DMT)
offer better data downstream speeds (up to 8 Mbps)
better upstream speeds (16 Kbps - 640 Kbps)
Carrierless amplitude phase (CAP)
carry data over shorter distances
offer lower downstream speeds (up to 2 Mbps)
lower upstream speeds (16 Kbps - 64 Kbps)
ADSL Network Architecture
ADSL Network Architecture
Premises Distrib. Network
Existing Copper
Twisted Pair
Server
1.5 - 8 Mbps
16 - 640 Kbps
ADSL Connection
ADSL - What's Required
ADSL - What's Required
10,000-18,000 feet (approx. 2-3 miles)
Web/intranet
sites
RLA
VOD
Multimedia
Telco Central Office
Telco Remote Terminal
Fiber
Cable
Twisted Pair
Twisted Pair
POTS
TV
PC(s)
POTS
PCs
xDSL Market History - Trials
xDSL Market History - Trials
Source: Telechoice (8/96)
North America
US ADSL Line Installed Base
US ADSL Line Installed Base
Source: Dataquest (11/95)
~2M
ADSL Pros & Cons
ADSL Pros & Cons
Pros
Uses existing copper
ADSL & Analog POTS travel over same pair
Star topology
High data network access speeds possible
Data travels over less expensive, non-switched infrastructure
Flat rate pricing
Potential for turnkey application solution in Internet access
Cons
Highest speeds are only attainable on loops <<18K feet
High access speed maybe mismatch versus Internet backbone capacity
Unknown Telco tariffs
Telco positioning as consumer service
Standards confusion
Lagging behind cable modem implementations
v.56 Analog Modem
v.56 Analog Modem
v.56 Market Positioning
v.56 Market Positioning
Optimize analog modem technology around internet access & remote LAN access applications
Increase the performance of analog modems in situations where only one of the loops - the subscriber loop - is analog
Utilize `regular' analog POTS lines
Asymmetric speeds
Up to 56K bps downstream, 28.8/33.6K upstream
New analog modems and modem upgrades at `modest' premium over current products
v.56 Motivations
v.56 Motivations
Analog POTS services are ubiquitous and cheap
Analog POTS loops in the US are relatively good
Introduction of consumer priced digital services has been slow and painful - analog remains king
Analog modem companies responding to widespread pressure for faster access speeds especially to the Internet
Asymmetric speeds may fit current Internet access traffic profile
v.56 Network Architecture
v.56 Network Architecture
The Internet
Internet Service Provider
POP
POTS
T1/E1/ISDN PRI or BRI
56K Modem
Telco
Up to 56K bps
PCM Modulation
Up to 33.6K bps
v.34+ Modulation*
* Lucent's implementation can use PCM modulation in both directions
v.56 - When It Doesn't Work
v.56 - When It Doesn't Work
Access Loop Limitations
No multiple A/D conversions (e.g. some Pair Gain systems)
No load coils
Poor quality/very long loops
Network Limitations
No analog trunks
No international calls (e.g. transcoding or ADPCM)
No AT&T TrueVoiceT
Egress Loop Limitations
Must be digital (T1/E1, PRI)
v.56 Rollout
v.56 Rollout
Just entering field beta testing
No standard. Multiple incompatile implementations are likely to exist for some time
Rockwell
US Robotics
Lucent
Motorola
Lucent & Rockwell have promised interoperability
1Q97 initial product rollouts/upgrades
US v.56 Installed Base
US v.56 Installed Base
v.56 Pros & Cons
v.56 Pros & Cons
Pros
Promises better (mid-40K bps) performance over analog POTS lines for specific Internet and RLA applications
Some current analog modem products are soft upgradeable
Can rollout independent of new telco services
Major modem companies have name recognition and know how to market
Cons
Immature technology
Limited interoperability
No standard and perhaps >12 months to develop one
Lots of market hype is setting high expectations
Lots of confusion
Strict set of environments where technology will work
Customer support issues
ISDN Basic Rate
ISDN Basic Rate
ISDN Basic Rate Market Positioning
ISDN Basic Rate Market Positioning
Moderate speed, primarily connection oriented service
Up to 128K bps symmetric, switched, usage sensitive
Star topology, dedicated bandwidth per subscriber
Monthly $25-90 plus per minute data usage
Target Application
Internet Access
Remote Access/Telecommuting
Videoconferencing
Target market
Residential
Business
PP Presentation
Types of ISDN Services: Basic Rate & Primary Rate
BRI is two 64-Kbps B channels, and one 16-Kbps D channel
B channels may be grouped to provide for increased bandwidth
Also known as a `2B+D' connection
B Channel @ 64Kbps
B Channel @ 64Kbps
D Channel @ 16Kbps
BRI
64Kbps
64Kbps
64Kbps
D Channel @ 64Kbps
B Channel @ 64Kbps
B Channel @ 64Kbps
:
B Channel @ 64Kbps
PRI
PRI is twenty-three 64-Kbps B channels and one 64-Kbps D channel in North America
Also known as `23B+D' in North America and Japan
PRI is thirty 64-Kbps B channels and one 64-Kbps D channel in Europe
Where is ISDN Available in North America?
Where is ISDN Available in North America?
Source:Bellcore & COS, 11/94
"Anywhere"
>80%
Metro Areas
>70%
>90%
Anywhere Pending
Oahu > 60%
Canada = Metro Areas
"Anywhere"
US ISDN BRI Installed Base
US ISDN BRI Installed Base
~3M
Dataquest, June 96
Worldwide ISDN Adoption is Taking Off
Worldwide ISDN Adoption is Taking Off
Worldwide ISDN BRI Installed Base
Source: Dataquest (1996)
ISDN BRI Pros & Cons
ISDN BRI Pros & Cons
Pros
Mature technology
Most widely available service other than POTS
Very reliable once properly installed
CPE price declining
Broad applicability and flexibility
Cons
Service pricing is perceived as high
Not seen as simple to obtain
Usage cost sensitivity
Lack of 100% ubiquity
Lengthy time to install
Telco marketing, service & support
ISDN vs. Emerging Technologies
ISDN vs. Emerging Technologies
Standardized
Infrastructure in Place
Widespread Deployment
Inexpensive CPE
Supports data, voice, video
ISDN xDSL Cable 56K Modem
Under Debate
Expect `98-'99
DoC - In Progress
?
Shipments of 56K, ISDN, Cable and ADSL
Shipments of 56K, ISDN, Cable and ADSL
North America
Pessimistic US ISDN Scenario
Pessimistic US ISDN Scenario
56K modem is the most significant current threat to ISDN Basic Rate acceptance in the US
Cable modem can grab a significant portion of the consumer internet access space from BRI
It is doubtful that ADSL will be a true consumer market competitor to ISDN BRI
ADSL tariffs will likely be higher than ISDN BRI
.but ADSL will take market share from ISDN among business users
Flat rate, predictable billing
ADSL may be less expensive than leased lines
This Is Bad News For Most Telcos
This Is Bad News For Most Telcos
56K modem continues the analog POTS paradigm
Not much growth potential for telcos here
Telco service & support will increase, adding insult to injury
CAPs will peel away business users
ADSL bypass
Sometimes using the telcos own copper
Cable companies will peel away power internet access consumers
These maybe the consumers that can afford to pay
All Isn't Lost (yet)...
All Isn't Lost (yet)...
Analyst projections are likely incorrect
56K has a lot of issues
Standards and interoperability
Limitations on use
ADSL isn't ready for prime time
Some of the same technology issues as early ISDN BRI
Cable has troubles too
Lots of expensive infrastructure upgrades
Noisy upstream channel problems
Scalability issues - network management & poor performance
. If Telcos Flex Their Muscles
. If Telcos Flex Their Muscles
Explain 56K modem limitations to customers now. Express support & performance concerns
Recommend ISDN BRI as the service of choice for serious remote access & internet access
Close the price gap between ISDN BRI & POTS
Find a way to tariff ISDN data usage and analog voiceband data usage equivalently
Offer turnkey applications kits with ISDN BRI
Do not position ADSL for consumer market prematurely. Migrate business and power users from ISDN BRI up to
ADSL first
More Optimistic Scenario
More Optimistic Scenario
Conclusions & Opinions
Conclusions & Opinions
There will be a co-existence of many services
Analog modem will probably continue to dominate in US
ISDN is best positioned to gain share today in consumer and work at home & telecommuting, internet/intranet, if
telcos price to the market
ADSL is the future for remote work - e.g. business and high performance work at home & remote access
applications - not consumer
Cable Modem best at future consumer internet access in the US
Conclusions & Opinions (cont'd)
Conclusions & Opinions (cont'd)
Emerging access technologies don't take root overnight:
Data over cable costs a lot to be very widely available
Full speed ADSL won't drive full loop lengths
For many, buying a 56K modem will be like buying a second 28.8 modem
ISDN BRI can succeed in the US
It's still up to the telephone companies
Quicken the pace
If telco ISDN doesn't succeed, why will telco ADSL?
The Power Of AccessT
The Power Of AccessT |
