>>>Since the 1Q99 results were already known by management
>>>at the time the 4Q98 report was released it is reasonable
>>>to conclude that the evidence that the market is looking
>>>for will not be found in the 1Q99 report. It appears that
>>>XYBR's overall timetable has experienced at least one full
>>>quarter's worth of slippage since early 1998 when plans for
>>>the MA IV were first announced.
This is consistent with recent Xybernaut tactics which (when not ignoring investors) only speak optimistically of progress while hiding downside events. This unbalanced reporting has, IMO, drained a heap of confidence from the market. The current price, while it really sucks, is probably a bargain for the patient investor (3-1/2 still seems like a reasonable floor).
I'm not too knowledgeable about 'early 1998' projections, but I suspect slippage from the more familiar 'mid-December 1998' timetable is on the order of a half-quarter. This is based on the unpassioned P.R. of Dec 16, 1998, and on the 4Q98 report, as well as on the unsubstantiated rumor regarding non-availability of the flat-panel display until the latter part of 1Q99. (One reason I feel this rumor might have substance is that the LCD panel was selected late in the MA-IV development cycle.)
I sure wish these folk would level with us about what is going on inside their house so I can start to feel like a smart investor. Or at least like a non-ignorant investor. I'm mainly just feeling like a wise investor. And, of course, wisdom is what you get when you don't get what you want.
Though I lack the experience to accurately project, I presently see 1Q99 earnings solidifying the floor above $5 (because it will likely lack hints at 2Q99 projections), while 2Q99 can offer a good solid pop if earnings are reasonable.
Revisiting the subject of the MA-IV development cycle, I wonder if the MA-IV has been subjected to any agency testing, such as TUV (or VDE), UL, CSA, or whatever (though I don't care about ISO at this time). Hopefully their web page will eventually mention some of this. I'd hate to think that the MA-IV locks up when you walk across a carpet. Man, I wish I could ask these questions directly to Xybernaut, but I know they would not bother answering.
Shoe. |
