Hi Everybody,
Let's face some facts:
1) We are all nervous waiting for good news on Ampex.
2) KM is delayed in acceptance due to numerious technical problems
Disk platter change to MR which is less effective with KM
Need for a new design Read/Write amplifier
Need for a new head design
Need to build manufacturing facilities ($$$ startup) for all
of the above.
3) Numerious technological innovations have never made it.
4) Hard Disks may become obsolete (I've lost count of the number
of times that this has been predicted). A very unlikely situation
as only a new technology could replace hard disks which implies
start up costs, design delays, "bugs", problems with
manufacturing (can't make enough to start with), problems with
distribution and retail chains, etc .. Only a truly revolutionary
technology can succeed in replacing hard disks - incrdmental
technologies do not offer enough to make the change economical -
just look at all the things that have to be changed. A
replacement technology will start off as a special item (usually
in high end systems) and there will be some warnning time. Don't
bet on DVD until it demonstrates some ability - remember the
Digital Audio Tape (DAT) that was supposed to replace the
cassett tape. DVD is so expensive, at present, that it is not a
realistic competitor.
That a small, aggressive startup competitor (Maxtor) is willing to invest and develop KM is a very positive sign of its potential. The big manufacturers have too much to lose to be willing to jump in until all of the technical problems have been solved. The amount of interest (technical papers) in KM is proof that it has potential.
KM's best support is an experienced and capable management that can correctly identify problem areas and work to resolution. Ampex has demonstrated a very capable management. So far, all identified problems have been solved in a rapid manner.
We are left with a technology that can reduce costs and enhance performance plus reliability. We seem to have a jar of honey, sit back and wait for the flies. This stock will likely not be as big a winner as we could hope, but it offers a very strong potential and with some luck could deliver at least a 10 bagger.
Some oppostition is necessary in order to retain a firm grip on reality. |
