StockOperator: Of course when it is over it will be a huge buying opportunity. Because I do believe we will eventually go higher longer term.
I think all would agree with that...
I personally believe the 87 correction was just that, a correction in a very long bull market, looking back. Of course this is only my personal view.
To me a true bear Market would be longer than the 87 move down. It took only two months from top to bottom. Of course it took two years to again make new highs, but the market almost immediately started plodding forward.
Will we have one of those, I don't know, but I doubt it. My personal read is that it will be a different story this time, due to all the “new era” computer traders. Once a bear market fear becomes present a fast and furious decline will take place with all portals for exiting positions jammed. Many will place market orders to insure execution. Big mistake…
However, with so many of a view that they can cherry pick the bottom (IE the Oct 87 bottom) the BTD'ers will come in and the market will see an equally fast and furious recovery with all portals jammed as "new era" investors try to jump back in. Many will place market orders, a big mistake…
Except, it will not be a recovery. Buying will exhaust shy of new highs and selling will once again take over and once again portals for exiting positions will be jammed! A vicious cycle will start with volatile oscillations leading to lower highs and lower lows over a protracted period of time. I do not know how long it will take, but eventually a bottom will be put in when the BTD'ers are exhausted...(beat up pretty badly).
Of course some will profit form these swings, as they will be quick to make the reads and nimble enough (access to their brokerage coupled with great brokerage executions) to make the trades. But, most will not!
Regards,
LG
Disclaimer: My posts are my opinions only and I reserve the right to be wrong on occasion. Do not base any investment decision solely on anyone's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your own investment decisions. |
