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Gold/Mining/Energy : Games Trader

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To: Ruby who wrote (321)	4/23/1999 5:08:00 PM
From: Professor Dotcomm	Read Replies (1) of 1239

Sorry to intrude, Ruby, but a quickie interruption here. GTR has currently about 40M shares (& special warrants) issued, market cap at $5 around $200M. 3Q revenues $12.2M i.e. annualized $49M. Price to sales about 4 times. I see about $80M revenues for calendar 99 from wire releases so let us say 2.5 times current. So far so good. Probably a good price would be $4. However if (a big IF) the e-commerce site in September attracts traffic, the whole equation changes. A good site would inject incremental revenues at low incremental cost. GTR as a group would be controlling ultimate selling price (unlike Amazon or Chapters) and this could lead to a materially enhanced multiple, IMHO. Here, price to sale multiples are around the 12-15 times (some are over 50 times). I agree with you. Lots of imponderables, lots of uncertainty. Lets discount heavily all the ifs and buts - but don't discount the baby totally down the plughole. Lets go for a 6 times multiple (if the site succeeds). Well then we would be in the teens.

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