Well said Mike. The potential for NTII is much larger than the chump change made short term trading it. You set a $3 goal for yourself. I may sound rediculous but mine is over $10. NTII has about 10 million shares outstanding. At $10 a share it would have a market cap of $100 million. That is actually low for a company with approved products and a revenue stream. So, I see it as a realistic goal over the next two years.
In other words I see NTII as a 10 bagger from todays price two years from now. In addition, I feel that I'm being conservative. If we figure on a PE of 30 time earnings for the future and 10 million shares, NTII has to generate 10/30=$.33 a share in earnings to justify a $10 price. That means 10,000,000*$.33= $3.3 million in earnings. Since, the burn is miniscule, NTII could hit this goal with a $6 million in gross revenue from memantine. This is a pittance compared to its market potential.
So, Mike, I second your "investor" sentiment and also intend to stay the course.
That being said, now for the truth. I also get wrapped up in trading. I consider it part of the enjoyment of investing on my own rather than buying an index fund. So, I set aside a portion of each position as my "trading" shares and a portion as my "investing" shares. in the case of NTII 25% of my position are "trading" shares and 75% "investing". I sold my "trading" shares at 1 1/2. I intend to use the entire proceeds to buy NTII shares again when my trading instincts tell me that a good buying opportunity is present. If the price is below 1 1/2, then I'll buy more shares than I sold and increase my "trading" position.
In fact, I see your strategy a more reasonable and prudent. But, I'm a Psychologist and, as such, recognize the importance of emotion and enjoyment from what I'm doing. So, I'm a little illogical, but I'm enjoying life more.
Best regards
John de C |
