Fred:
"What will it take to do the major upgrades for the internet? "
The estimates I've seen say about one trillion dollars, world-wide, and ten to twenty years. I can't elaborate on that very much; I take the word of the analysts on this one. So what if they're off by a hundred million? That doesn't make or break it.
"Will it be the telco's deep pockets or Govt. assisted thanks to you and i...ie the tax payers? "
Yes, them and about any other source you can think of; however, nobodies pockets are THAT deep. I believe it will happen in bits and pieces, til one day, years from now, someone notices, "oh my, we spent a trillion dollars on that", but each step will be done for a specific reason and will make or break the backers. Government can't do all of it, and private industry won't do it until it is clearly profitable and here to stay. A lot of big money managers still think it is a fad, like, say, CB radios were a couple three decades ago, and like PC's were supposed to be. However, since PC's weren't a fad, and it is tied to the PC market, I conclude: the Internet is not a fad either. Universities and government can keep it going where it is at, but they don't really have much need to make it that much faster; the speed issue is more for the commercial and home users and we aren't close to critical mass yet.
Keep in mind, ONLY my opinions, and I'm just another doofus with a modem......
"Correct me if i'm wrong, but the big-n-wide high speed lines (the
backbone) seem that they are getting upgraded every 3-6months. So, the real problems lie in the local loop....where all the ants, bugs, water, mice...etc reside?"
Your information is correct in a way; these backbones are being upgraded rapidly, but when you COMBINE all the feeders into the backbones, the bandwidth is phenomenal; the backbones tend to grow only after they are overloaded, so there is usually no excess capacity for very long. Although we talk about "bandwidth" in too many widely differing contexts, we always seem to think that increasing bandwidth will solve the problem. Right now, the Internet is router-bound, ie, the routers are the problem, not backbone bandwidth. Switch manufacturers and router manufacturers are trying to come up with new solutions and they will. Whoever comes up with a quantum leap in that market is glory bound, though. (I'd like to put together or better yet, find, a good site which explains "how the Internet works", first in general terms, then becoming more and more detailes, so we could learn as much specific information as we desire about it (such as: what is the difference between a switch and a router? When can a switch start to look like a router? Why are sw/rtr's, and not backbone bandwidth, the problem now? etc.) If you know of such a site I'd appreciate hearing about it; I don't know of ONE site like that, or even of a few good ones. When I do a search on any combination of terms with any engine, I come up with ten zillion matches and give up after about twenty. There isn't a "unified" Internet tutorial from beginner to expert level that I've found.
:Whats your take on the Telco's gripes about the internet? Everytime i
read about the internet overloading the systems....i seem to come
away with a different outlook....! I just wish i could blame
someone...ya know like OJ did it...case closed."
I just read something about that yesterday ... I believe it was either PC Week online, news.com, or one of those types of sites. If I remember or find the link I will share it with you.
There are legal proceedings going on to resolve this issue. It looks to me as though the Telco's either don't realize that they have gotten enormous revenue from the increase in second phone lines caused by the Internet, or, they are trying to snow the regulators and pretend it isn't so. The verdict I've seen most often is: the Telco's are wrong and there are numbers to prove it. I believe I recall seeing that of several thousand switches in the country, only about a hundred have actually had problems with Internet traffic overloading them. All others are handling it fine and are just glad for the extra business. When the facts must be brought into the light, the Telco's won't win, I believe.
I will look for that article and share it with you.
Larry |
