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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 659.00+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: StockOperator who wrote (11924)4/23/1999 7:51:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
SO, that's why i mentioned the seemingly ridiculous figure of dow 40,000 - because it's possible. a severe bear market could maybe start in 2014, or 2020, maybe a lot sooner. i don't think it is safe to assume that it will *never* happen again. my description of how such a bear market will probably play out was meant to help with recognizing it if and when it comes. modern times are not insulating us from the possibility of a 'real' bear market, as numerous asian examples have shown. so we are not only challenged with the timely recognition of sharp corrections, but also with determining whether the corrections could develop into something worse. you will agree that buying the nikkei after the initial 20% plunge was not exactly a good idea.

regards,

hb
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