*OT* Jim, I reckon that odds have got to be pretty darn good that Kumar is right on Dell's revenue +/- 50m....it is one week before the close the quarter..he got the IDC data, Infobeads, leaks from Dell, and his own sources to close in on the number....After having to revise Gateway (and earlier predicting .90), the pressure is on a bit to make another accurate call.....In the past, he has made some great (close) calls, often a lot earlier in the quarter...
Of course, his call on CPQ was uncanny, and looked (almost) nutty at first...
I think with Gateway (.90), he simply made his call too early in the quarter...but he probably saw that Compaq (early on) was sucking wind, and that Dell/Gateway were doing well...maybe he just didnt know who to attribute to (so he gave it all to Gateway)...
If you recall, all quarter long he has said that PC sales were normal for the time of the year, and weakness was just seasonal...
My only question: Did he see IBM's surprise coming? (I think his call/report on Dell was out before those numbers came out)...I suppose if he didnt (and he were surprised by their strength) that he would get out a "revised" call on Dell immediately...but he didn't, so, I am assuming that he knew about IBM doing well this quarter...
So, again, in conclusion, I believe the odds are greater than 50% Kumar's call will hold up.......5.7B in rev...and .17 EPS.....earnings growth of 53%...........Pretty damn good.......If he is wrong, he will certainly fall further behind Niles as the "axe" (I know, I know...I hate that term too...) |
