Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: The Ox who wrote (43161)	4/24/1999 2:01:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) of 95453

< I believe we will need an event to change the trend. > ...sometimes the "Street'' just gets a little bored - runs out of gas and if there is a ''lack'' of events to keep us ''sustained'' - we retrace. Lets hope they don't get bored with $17 Oil and that these Crude price levels don't become ''old news''. Lets also hope that any vacumn of ''events'' doesn't let the spotlight shine to long on SLB CEO Baird's comments of ''next year.'' Because ''next year'' is becoming an all to familiar ''timeframe'' being quoted for recovery - and I don't think the Streets patience will be ''sustainable'' without continued volatility & retracements... ''next year'' - doesn't exactly light my fire here...not at these prices. The easy money has been made - now we have to get it the old fashioned way ...(VBG). Unfortunatley, we are seeing all too many cautionary comments of late; and the retracement catalyst-kiss of death - ''analyst downgrades'' on price appreciation are starting... RIG today for example... here is a comment from Salomon Smith Barney that sounds all to familiar here: { ...have seen sharp appreciation in their share prices over the past two weeks, and we think many of them are near fair valuation levels given how far out earnings improvement appears.} No one in their right mind wouldn't be Bullish on the Oilpatch here. But being Bullish doesn't mean that you fail to recognize reality. For those so inclined, this continued volatility offers opportunity. While this last cycle within the oilpatch is unlikely to retrace back to prior levels, a substantial degree of retracement seems all most inevitable to me, Not a bad time to take ''some'' profits - at least trimming some positions and having some cash to take advantage of retracements. Bottomline: - E&P's baby ! - they are in the ''win - win'' sweet spot; they get to take advantage of low dayrates (sometimes 1/2 of project costs) and they reap the rewards of these higher prices right here - right now. Great trading opportunies for those so inclined - and for those who just want to hold; no problem - as it is definitely a ''when'' and no longer an ''if'' question... Still need to keep that OSX 100 - Rig Party alive... Next Week is going to be an interesting one. GaryB - I agree with what you are saying. That is why this enviroment here with still many rotation ideas and laggards is an ideal enviroment to ''take profits'' within. One gets to lock in some healthy gains - taking some chips off of the table - but, still has many rotation ideas to keep in the game with.... untill, that list and these opportunities disappear - it's the only game in town imho. Watching CRK moving 40% in days as the OSX decides what it wants to do here.... I have to keep doing what is working for me. The $64 question, is can I keep finding the next ''CRK'' or rotation idea ?... I think I still can - but the list is getting shorter. I am holding PGO - a super value here - one of my fav's and one of my few non - E&P holdings here @ $14 1/2 - with a $26 price target by XMAS !

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