gbh, like I said, this market has a way of instilling humility in all, bulls and bears. I'm not a perma bear, but right now I think furthur upticks in the major indexes are not constructive without some backing and filling, and I don't mean a 1 day v shaped correction. When the 50 day moving average is so much higher than the 200 day moving average, you're looking for a blowoff to the downside. And we heard about the goldilocks environment last summer, that was before Hong Kong, et al melted down, taking everything with it.
Earnings are not as great as you think. There is a game going on here called lowering First Call consensus estimates, then beating them by a few pennies. Or blowing them out, which is a bubble phenomenon in many cases, since stock buybacks are fueling the extra EPS. It's accounting tricks, and not core business sequential growth and strong sales.
I like it very much though when I hear gloating from the bullish camps and the definitive statements that we are going up and up. This is when the humility factor will come in to play for those making the statements.
It's not particularly fun being contrarian and bearish in the current market environment, but I continue to feel the risks in being long negate taking those positions, and that the potential profits in being short are great.
The market falls a helluva lot faster than it goes up, and months of gains can be wiped out in a few trading days, leaving those with bullish bets no chance to get out. |
